Sunday, September 8, 2013

National League Picture 9/8 (Three Weeks to go)

Some numbers and notes going into Sunday, September 8th regarding the NL Central and NL as a whole...

Braves by 13 - Magic Number to clinch division is 9.  Magic Number to clinch the one seed is 20.

St. Louis leads the Pirates by 0.5 a game and the Reds by 1.5 games. 
Pirates and Reds magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 13.
Pirates magic number to clinch their first winning season in 22 years is down to 1.

Dodgers lead by 11 - Magic number to clinch the division is 11.

Reds are hot right now, having won 5 of 6, and three straight.  1.5 games is the closest they have been to first since May 29th.  Their schedule for the next week or so looks very favorable also with the Cubs, Brewers, and Astros in order.  Let's take a look at the schedule breakdown for the Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals the rest of the way.

REDS (19 Remain)
10 Home Games, 9 Road Games
7 Against Winning Teams, 12 Against Losing Teams
6 of the last 9 against the Pirates

PIRATES (21 Remain)
11 Home Games, 10 Road Games
10 Against Wining Teams, 11 Against Losing Teams
6 of the last 9 against the Reds
7 remaining against the Cubs

CARDINALS (20 Remain)
13 Home Games, 7 Road Games
4 Against Winning Teams, 16 Against Losing Teams

Doesn't take a genius to see who has the edge the rest of the way.  Cardinals schedule is setup perfectly for them.  Here is where the three teams stand on the season against each other.  Head to head records will be used to break ties, so these records matter.

6-7 against the Pirates (6 remaining)
8-11 against the Cardinals (DONE)
14-18 Overall

7-6 against the Reds (6 remaining)
10-8 against the Cardinals (1 remaining)
17-14 Overall

11-8 against the Reds
8-10 against the Pirates (1 remaining)
19-18 Overall

If the Reds can go 4-2 or better against the Pirates in the last six, then each team would have a head to head advantage on another team.  So it's pretty even overall, but the Reds are the losers at this stage in the game.

How has each team in the Central done since August 7th (calendar month)?  One has picked it up, once hasn't...

Reds          19-11
Cardinals  16-14
Pirates       13-16

So in that span the Reds have picked up 5.5 on the Pirates and 3 on the Cardinals.

I took a look at the schedule for the last day of the season, and I would think there is about a 99% chance that the Pirates at Reds game will be the Sunday nighter.  That has a chance to be a huge game.

Big game tonight between the Dodgers and Reds.  Reds trail the Dodgers by three games in the standings.  If they can win tonight it will be down to two, and the Reds would hold the tiebreaker with a 4-3 season series win.  This is significant because if the Reds were to win the division, they could get the two seed over the Dodgers and get homefield in the first round.  But ya, that didn't mean much last year, so who take it for what it's worth.

Oh, and let's not act like Latos didn't try to hit Puig.  Remember the way he threw his arms in the air when he hit that walkoff when they were in LA?  Latos did, and he drilled him.  Latos is the man.  If he wasn't a Red, I wouldn't like him, but he is, so I do. 

Astros, Marlins, White Sox, and Cubs have been eliminated, 26 remain.  Three weeks to go, cmon Reds.



  1. threw his hands in the air and slid into home on the walkoff in LA......

  2. Oh shit, I totally forgot about that. Ya, that was an intentional beanball, no doubt about it.