Thursday, May 1, 2014

Season Projections 5/1

The Reds have now completed 27 games this season, which puts them exactly 1/6th of the way to the finish line.  For the heck of it I calculated what the hitters numbers would look like if they kept up their current paces.  Warning, nothing looks that good but some of the numbers can be encouraging depending on what your expectations were starting the season.  Below are the numbers, then I'll point out a few things that caught my eye.  Enjoy.

AVG.     HR.     RBI.     2B.     BB.     K.     SB.     R.
.245.        6.        36.       18.      24.    114.    66.     78.          Billy Hamilton
.256.        6.        36.       12.       6.      54      18.     36.          Chris Heisey
.260.       12.       60.       24.      24.    114.     0.      36.          Ryan Ludwick
.160.        0.         6.         6.       36.     54.     12.     12.          Roger Bernadina
.220.       18.       84.       24.     114.   162.    30.    102.         Jay Bruce
.280.       24.       60.       30.     144.   132.     6.      90.          Joey Votto
.255.        6.        36.       24.      18.    150.     0.      42.          Brandon Phillips
.180.        6.        54.       30.      18.     90.      0.      24.          Zack Cozart
.247.       24.       72.       36.      60.    120.    12.     84.          Todd Frazier
.143.        0.         6.         0.       12.     18.      0.       6.           Ramon Santiago
.200.        0.         6.         6.        0.       6.       6.       6.           Neftali Soto
.200.        0.         0.         0.        0.      12.      0.       0.           Tucker Barnhart
.468.       18.       78.       36.      24.     60.      6.      60.          Devin Mesoraco
.304.        6.        18.       24.      24.     48.     12.     18.          Brayan Pena

Hamilton ends the year with a .245 average, 36 RBI, 66 SB, and 78 Runs, I think we would take that.

Bruce with 114 walks and 30 SB would be nice.  The 162 K's wouldn't be.

Votto with only 60 RBI and 132 K's.  So much for not getting any pitches to hit.

Phillips on pace for 18 walks and 150 K's?  Good Lord!

Mesoraco's numbers would be awesome if he gets back soon and stays hot.

Heisey, Santiago, Soto, and Barnhart have worked one whole walk combined.

Only the 2 good catchers have averages over .300.

As bad as Cozart has been, his K total isn't too bad, maybe that's a sign some balls will start to find holes.

Could we really go a year without a guy hitting 25 homers?

The big number is the pace of only winning 72 games.

Please feel free to point out some other good and bad numbers you might see, besides the obvious of course. Thanks for reading.


Sunday, March 16, 2014

Dance Prediction

Ok, so we have 32 AUTO bids and 28 LOCKS.  That gives us 60 spots taken with eight to fill.  I have 15 ZOMBIE teams, so seven of them are going to bite the big one tonight.  Here is who is in the dance and who I feel will bow out...

Eastern Kentucky
Coastal Carolina
Wichita State
Mount St. Mary's
North Dakota State
Texas Southern
North Carolina Central
New Mexico
Western Michigan
Weber State
Stephen F Austin
Cal Poly
New Mexico State
UL Lafayette
St. Joseph's
Iowa State
Michigan State

LOCK (28)
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
St. Louis
North Carolina
Ohio State
George Washington
San Diego State

I think these eight schools are in...
Arizona State
Southern Mississippi

I think these seven schools are out...
North Carolina State

We'll know in an hour or so.  Thanks for reading.


Dead or Alive 3/15

We lost 15 more teams on Saturday.  Now a total of 275 dead and only 76 still remaining with a chance at the title.  Here are the 15 that got crossed off on Saturday...

AMERICA EAST - Stony Brook
ATLANTIC 10 - St. Bonaventure
SUN BELT - Arkansas State, South Alabama, Texas State, Western Kentucky
SEC - Georgia
SWAC - Prairie View A&M
MEAC - Morgan State
CONFERENCE USA - Louisiana Tech
PAC 12 - Utah
BIG SKY - North Dakota
SOUTHLAND - Sam Houston State
BIG WEST - Cal State Northridge
WAC - Idaho

14 AUTO bids were handed out on Saturday.  That brings us to a total of 27 AUTO bids with five more to go on Sunday.  Here is who punched their ticket on Saturday...

SWAC - Texas Southern
AMERICAN - Louisville
MEAC - North Carolina Central
MAC - Western Michigan
BIG SKY - Weber State
SOUTHLAND - Stephen F. Austin
BIG EAST - Providence
BIG 12 - Iowa State
BIG WEST - Cal Poly
WAC - New Mexico State

Nine teams lost in their conference tourneys but will be LOCK's for the dance.  We now have a total of 24 in LOCK status.  Here is who earned the LOCK on Saturday...

ACC - Pittsburgh
BIG 10 - Ohio State, Wisconsin
ATLANTIC 10 - George Washington
PAC 12 - Arizona
MOUNTAIN WEST - San Diego State
BIG EAST - Creighton
BIG 12 - Baylor

We added three more schools to the ZOMBIE category on Saturday.  I now have 15 teams in the ZOMBIE category.  It's looking like those 15 teams will be fighting for eight spots.  Here is who went ZOMBIE on Saturday...

SEC - Tennessee
ACC - North Carolina State
MAC - Toledo

Five more conference tourney championship games on Sunday before the brackets are released.  If you look below, we have 51 teams in for sure and nine that will be in after Sunday's games.  Here are the 15 ZOMBIE teams that will be competing for those last eight spots...

In order of RPI...

31 BYU
32 Southern Mississippi
38 Toledo
40 Stanford
41 Tennessee
42 Dayton
43 Arizona State
46 Xavier
47 Nebraska
49 Missouri
50 Minnesota
54 North Carolina State
56 Iowa
63 California
77 Arkansas

Who do you think should be in?  I'll send out something on Sunday with who I think will make it and why. 

TOTAL    351
DEAD      275
ALIVE       76
ZOMBIE    15
AUTO        27
LOCK        24

Thanks for reading.


Saturday, March 15, 2014

Dead or Alive 3/14

The number of teams alive is getting smaller and smaller and smaller.  Now only 91 teams are alive after another 29 teams died on Friday.  Here are the teams that lost their chance on Friday...

ACC - Florida State, Clemson
BIG 10 - Illinois, Northwestern
SWAC - Alabama State, Alabama A&M
SEC - South Carolina, LSU, Mississippi
CONFERENCE USA - Middle Tennessee,
SOUTHLAND - Northwestern State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi,
MEAC - Norfolk State, Coppin State
ATLANTIC 10 - Richmond,
MAC - Akron, Eastern Michigan
BIG SKY - Portland State, Northern Colorado
AMERICAN - Houston,
BIG EAST - Seton Hall,
SUN BELT - Arkansas-Little Rock, Texas Arlington
WAC - Utah Valley, Cal State Bakersfield
BIG WEST - UC Irvine, Long Beach State

The LOCK category is getting crowded as teams continue to be upset in their conference tourneys.  These teams however, did enough to get to the big dance.  The teams that earned the LOCK status on Friday were...

ATLANTIC 10 - St. Louis, UMASS
ACC -  North Carolina, Syracuse
BIG 12 - Kansas, Texas
PAC 12 - Colorado
AMERICAN - Cincinnati

And we got a few more ZOMBIES on Friday.  These teams will be sweating it out Sunday night.  The teams that couldn't get it done and now need to pray are...

SEC - Missouri
BIG 10 - Nebraska, Minnesota
ATLANTIC 10 - Dayton
CONFERENCE USA - Southern Mississippi
BIG EAST - Xavier
PAC 12 - Stanford

TOTAL    351
DEAD      260
ALIVE       91
ZOMBIE    13
AUTO        13
LOCK        15

There are 14 Conference Championship games on Saturday.  That will give us 28 AUTO bids by the end of the day.  Only these two days left before the committee makes their decision.  Saturday night I'll have a breakdown of who I think will make the dance and get rid of some of these ZOMBIES.  Thanks for reading.


Friday, March 14, 2014

Dead or Alive 3/13

And we are officially down the homestretch.  A record 48 teams died on Thursday.  We now have a total of 231 teams in the ground and only 120 remaining.  Here are the schools that didn't make it on Thursday...

ATLANTIC 10 - LaSalle, Fordham, Duquesne,
BIG 10 - Indiana, Purdue, Penn State,
ACC - Maryland, Wake Forest, Miami (FL), Georgia Tech
SEC - Texas A&M, Alabama, Mississippi State
SWAC - Alcorn State,
CONFERENCE USA - Tulane, Old Dominion, UTEP, Charlotte
MOUNTAIN WEST - Utah State, Wyoming, Fresno State, Nevada
BIG WEST - UC Santa Barbara, Cal State Fullerton, UC Riverside, Hawaii
WAC - Texas Pan American, UMKC, Chicago State, Seattle
BIG EAST - St. John's, DePaul, Marquette
AMERICAN - Rutgers, Central Florida,
BIG SKY - Sacramento State, Northern Arizona, Montana
SOUTHLAND - Nicholls State, Oral Roberts
MEAC - Florida A&M, Savannah State
MAC - Ohio, Buffalo
SUN BELT - Troy, UL Monroe
BIG 12 - West Virginia

We have our first group of LOCKS.  A LOCK is a team that is out of their tourney but is a LOCK for the NCAA Tourney.  Here is who earned that status on Thursday...

BIG EAST - Villanova
AMERICAN - Southern Methodist
BIG 12 - Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
PAC 12 - Oregon
AMERICAN - Memphis

We added a new group of ZOMBIE teams as well.  Here are the teams that are now part of that group...

PAC 12 - Utah, California, Arizona State
SEC - Arkansas
BIG 10 - Iowa

TOTAL    351
DEAD      231
ALIVE     120
ZOMBIE     7
AUTO       13
LOCK         6

All tournaments are underway and there are no tourney championship games on Friday.  Three more days of basketball until the 68 are revealed.  Getting closer.  Thanks for reading.


Thursday, March 13, 2014

Dead or Alive 3/12

Another 31 teams bit the dust on Wednesday.  The casualties are mounting and now over half of the teams are dead.  The total amount of deaths is now at 183, with only 168 teams still alive.  Here are the schools that had their runs ended on Wednesday...

ACC - Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Boston College
CONFERENCE USA - North Texas, Marshall, East Carolina, UAB
PAC 12 - Washington, USC, Oregon State, Washington State
MOUNTAIN WEST - Colorado State, Air Force, San Jose State
SOUTHLAND - Southeastern Louisiana, McNeese State
MEAC - Howard, Hampton
MAC - Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan
BIG EAST - Butler, Georgetown
ATLANTIC 10 - George Mason
BIG 12 - Texas Tech, TCU
SEC - Auburn, Vanderbilt
AMERICAN - South Florida, Temple
PATRIOT - Boston
SWAC - Southern

One more ticket was punched on Wednesday.  American wins the Patriot over Boston.  It was a beat down.

PATRIOT - American

TOTAL    351
DEAD      183
ALIVE     168
ZOMBIE     1
AUTO       13
LOCK         0

No Conference Championship games on Thursday.

The last five conference tournaments get started on Thursday.  The Big Sky has been dominated by Weber State, they should win the tourney.  UC Irvine is the favorite in the Big West.  The Big Ten should be a fun one.  About 8 teams could win it.  I think Wisconsin will take it.  Georgia State is the team to beat the in Sun Belt and Utah Valley is the one seed in the WAC.

Only four more days now until Selection Sunday.  Thanks for reading.


Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Dead or Alive 3/11

Tuesday was the last weak day of the season.  Only 13 games were on the schedule all day, that will change tomorrow.  10 teams were eliminated on Tuesday, here is who is finished...

SWAC - Jackson State
MEAC - North Carolina A&T, Bethune Cookman, Delaware State
CONFERENCE USA - Rice, Florida Atlantic, Texas-San Antonio
NORTHEAST - Robert Morris
HORIZON - Wright State

Four more teams punched their tickets to the dance as they were awarded the AUTO bids.  There have now been 12 AUTO's handed out.  Here is who earned them on Tuesday night...

HORIZON - Milwaukee
NORTHEAST - Mount St. Mary's
SUMMIT - North Dakota State
WEST COAST - Gonzaga

We have our first ZOMBIE team of the year.  The BYU Cougars are not dead, but not totally alive.  They have an RPI of 31, eight top 100 wins, and 22 wins.  Personally, I think they are in, but definitely not a lock.  Your new Zombie team...


Here is how the numbers look...

TOTAL    351
DEAD      152
ALIVE     199
ZOMBIE     1
AUTO       12
LOCK         0

Only one Conference Championship to be played on Wednesday.  The Patriot final is American vs. Boston.  Boston is the favorite but they split with American early this year.  American won their home game by 30.  Favorites haven't been doing to well so I'll take American in this one.

Seven Conferences get started on Wednesday, finally some of the big ones.  Here are the favorites, who I think will win, and who I want to win...

AMERICAN - Louisville, Louisville, Temple
ATLANTIC 10 - St. Louis, VCU, Dayton
ACC - Duke, Syracuse, Virginia
BIG 12 - Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia
MOUNTAIN WEST - San Diego State, New Mexico, Fresno State
SEC - Florida, Florida, Florida
SOUTHLAND - Stephen F. Austin, Stephen F. Austin, Stephen F. Austin

Five more days until Selection Sunday.  Thanks for reading.


Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Dead or Alive 3/10

Well, we lost another 13 teams on Monday.  Getting closer to the final number.  The total now sits at 142 dead.  Here are the teams that can close the books on the 2014 season...

MEAC - Maryland-Eastern Shore, South Carolina State
SUMMIT - Denver, South Dakota Sate
MAC - Kent State, Ball State, Central Michigan, Bowling Green
COLONIAL - William & Mary
MAAC - Iona
WEST COAST - St. Mary's, San Francisco
SOUTHERN - Western Carolina

Three more teams locked up AUTO bids on Monday night.  That brings the total to 8 bids so far.  Here are the teams that punched their tickets on Monday...

MAAC - Manhattan
COLONIAL - Delaware
SOUTHERN - Wofford

TOTAL    351
DEAD      142
ALIVE     209
ZOMBIE     0
AUTO         8
LOCK         0

We have four championship games on Tuesday.  The Horizon pits Milwaukee vs. Wright State, the Raiders have a losing record in the conference, you don't see those teams make the dance very often.  Mount St. Mary's vs. Robert Morris is your Northeast Conference Final.  Robert Morris has been the team to beat all year.  It'll be IPFW vs. North Dakota State in the Summit Championship.  NDSU has been trouncing teams, I think that will continue. In the West Coast it's Gonzaga vs. BYU.  Both of the teams should have a chance to get into the tourney, win or lose, but it's best if they win.

Two more conferences start their tourneys on Tuesday.  The SWAC will get started with Southern as the top seed.  Conference USA is a tourney you really want to watch.  A four way tie at the top at 13-3?  Has that ever happened?  No idea who wins this one, I'll take Southern Mississippi.

6 more days of basketball until Selection Sunday.  Thanks for reading.


Monday, March 10, 2014

Dead or Alive 3/9

We enter the final week of the College Basketball season with 222 teams still with a shot.  Another 13 teams were eliminated on Sunday.  Here are the teams that went down...

BIG SOUTH - Winthrop
ATLANTIC SUN - Florida Gulf Coast
COLONIAL - Northeastern, Towson
MAAC - Canisius, Quinnipiac
AMERICA EAST - Vermont, Hartford
SOUTHERN - Davidson, Georgia Southern
SUMMIT - South Dakota, Western Illinois

Three more schools earned AUTO bids on Sunday by winning their conference tournaments, they are...

BIG SOUTH - Coastal Carolina

Here are what the total standings look like with 7 days of basketball to go...

TOTAL    351
DEAD      129
ALIVE     222
ZOMBIE     0
AUTO         5
LOCK         0

Three more conference championship games will be held on Monday.  The Southern Conference will be without Davidson for the first time in awhile, Wofford and Western Carolina will faceoff for the title.  The MAAC will have Manhattan take on top seeded Iona.  Iona is always a tough out in the dance if they get there.  William and Mary will face Delaware in the Colonial.  Delaware has been trouncing teams lately, they should win that one.

 The MAC and the MEAC will start their tourneys on Monday.  Can my Bobcats get back to the dance in Kellogg's last year?  25-5 North Carolina Central is the team to beat in the MEAC.  7 days of basketball until Selection Sunday, getting closer.  Thanks for reading.


Sunday, March 9, 2014

Dead or Alive 3/8

The last Sunday before Selection Sunday has arrived and the casualties are rapidly mounting.  A total of 35 teams were decapitated on Saturday bringing us to a total of 116 in the cemetery.  Here are the schools that lost their chance of holding the trophy on Saturday...

AMERICA EAST - New Hampshire, UMBC, Maine, Binghamton
NORTHEAST - Wagner, St. Francis (PA)
MAAC - Rider, Siena, St. Peter's, Niagara
SOUTHERN - Samford, Elon, Chattanooga, The Citadel
BIG SOUTH - UNC Asheville, Virginia Military Institute
COLONIAL - Hofstra, Drexel, James Madison, Charleston
MISSOURI VALLEY - Missouri State, Southern Illinois
WEST COAST - San Diego, Loyola Marymount, Santa Clara, Pepperdine
PATRIOT - Army, Holy Cross
HORIZON - Cleveland State, Green Bay
SOUTHLAND - Central Arkansas
BIG SKY - Montana State, Eastern Washington

We did get our second AUTO bid of the tourney on Saturday, Eastern Kentucky won the Ohio Valley Conference Championship over Belmont.

OHIO VALLEY - Eastern Kentucky

I thought we had our first ZOMBIE team on Saturday but I have changed my mind, Green Bay is officially dead.  With an RPI of 60 and only 21 Division 1 wins, I just can't see it happening.  So here is where we stand...

TOTAL    351
DEAD      116
ALIVE     235
ZOMBIE     0
AUTO         2
LOCK         0

There will be three Championship games on Sunday which will bring us up to five AUTO bids by the end of the day.  In the Big South Championship we have Winthrop vs. Coastal Carolina.  Winthrop has won both matchups this year between the two teams.  In the Atlantic Sun matchup we have Mercer vs. Florida Gulf Coast.  Can FGCU make the tourney and make a run like last year?  They split between Mercer earlier this year.  Will Indiana State give Wichita State a game?  I'm thinking they will, this will be a good one in the Missouri Valley.

No conferences start their tourneys on Sunday, but we have some major conferences finishing up their regular season, so plenty of action to watch.  Any thoughts on Green Bay or anything else we've seen this week?  Thanks for reading.