Sunday, March 11, 2012

Blog Before the Selection...

Well, we're here, thank God.  I've been unable to blog the last couple days so I'm catching up and breaking it down here before 6PM.  I show 265 teams officially done.  I have 31 automatic bids and 24 at large locks.  That leaves us with 24 Zombie teams and a total of 79 teams that I feel are still alive in the chase for the title.  Here is who I show remaining.

UNC Asheville, Murray State, Belmont, Creigton, Virginia Commonwealth, Loyola (MD), St. Mary's, Davidson, Western Kentucky, Harvard, Detroit, South Dakota State, LIU Brooklyn, Lehigh, Montana, Vermont, Memphis, Norfolk State, Lamar, Colorado, Mississippi Valley State, Ohio, Long Beach State, Louisville, New Mexico State, New Mexico, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Florida State, St. Bonaventure, Michigan State

Wichita State, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Georgetown, Marquette, Iowa State, Temple, Syracuse, Kansas, Purdue, Indiana, UNLV, Notre Dame, Florida, Baylor, Duke, Wisconsin, Michigan, San Diego State, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio State

I am putting these teams in order of RPI with a note on whether they will get in or not.  These are clearly guesses, I'm not trying to act like I know who will get in or not.  A few of these teams we are pretty sure will be in, and a few will most definitely be out.  But would you be surprised if any of them missed out or made it?  Not entirely, so that's why they are on this list.  13 of these teams will get in.

Southern Mississippi (21) Should get in, 9-5 against the RPI Top 100.
Colorado State (30) Should get in, but a 3-9 road record?  Uh oh.
Connecticutt (32) They'll get in, Big East, no doubt.
Alabama (36) Will probably get in, but also a bad road record at 4-7.
California (37) Zero wins over the Top 50 RPI, I think that kicks them out.
Iona (40) Also zero wins over the Top 50 RPI, they are probably out.
Xavier (41) Four Top 50 wins will get them in.
Marshall (44) 13 overall losses and 5-8 on the road.  I think they make it.
BYU (46) Only one Top 50 win but a good road record, probably make it.
North Carolina State (49) Only one tp 50 win, but a 23 SOS, probably make it.
Texas (50) 4 Top 50 wins and a 19 SOS.  They probably get in.
Oral Roberts (51) 2 Top 50 wins but a SOS of 193 will be their downfall.  They're out.
South Florida (52) 12-6 in the Big East, that has to count.  They make it.
Virginia (53) Loss 5 out of last 8, 86 SOS, just not enough, out.
Central Florida (54) 6 losses in CUSA and 3-8 on the road, they are out.
West Virginia (57) Don't deserve it, but they'll make it, probably with 9 Top 100 wins.
Miami (60) Only 3 Top 100 wins and 5-8 on the road.  Out.
Oregon (64) Zero top 50 wins, no way, they are out.
Drexel (66) 19 straight wins at one time, tough Colonial conference, they make it.
Nevada (67) Zero top 50 wins but 13-1 in conference.  Out.
Seton Hall (68) 8-10 in conference, that has to put you out.
Washington (71) High RPI, regular season PAC 12 champs, ughhh, they make it.
Mississippi State (75) 2 Top 50 wins but only 3 road wins out, not enough, out.
Arizona (76) Positive road record, one top 50 win, not enough, out.

This will be an interesting bracket.  I have Kentucky, Syracuse, Missouri, and Michigan State as my one seeds, but UNC is right there too.  Let me know what you think. 


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