Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Postseason Roster Prediction

With the season ending three weeks from today and the Reds enoying an 11.5 game lead in the Central, I think it's ok to look towards the postseason.  Reds will have plenty of days to rest guys, set the rotation, and give some guys some looks in different situations.  Because of this cushion, I think it would be a good time to take a look at what I think the postseason roster might look like come playoff time. 

As we all know, the playoff roster consists of 25 players.  You can change your roster for each series.  In the first series the Reds will only need to carry 4 starting pitchers due to the off day between games 2 and 3.  Those four will be....

Johnny Cueto
Mat Latos
Bronson Arroyo
Homer Bailey

The only real question here is, what order do you pitch them in.  I'm not going to get into that since we don't know who they will playing yet.  Another question that you could try to argue is, what about Leake instead of Bailey?  I don't think that is even a thought in the Reds eyes.  Homer was lightyears ahead of Leake from May to June, then he struggled, but he has only given up four runs in his last three outings.  He has the potential to throw a gem or at least give you a good quality start in the playoffs.  Right now, none of us are trusting Leake to do that.  We just aren't.

Next is the bullpen.  The question here is, do you carry 12 pitchers or 11.  I think you should only carry 11, but Dusty and Walt will probably carry 12.  That gives you eight bullpen spots.  The locks are....

Aroldis Chapman
Jonathon Broxton
Sean Marshall
Jose Arredondo
JJ Hoover
Sam LeCure

So that leaves two more spots.  I think Logan Ondrusek will get one of those spots.  Right now, I don't trust him, but if you have to go to him to get one guy out, he can get the job done.  So he's my seventh guy.  So the last spot comes down to Simon, Leake, and the sleeper, Tony Cingrani.  Simon hasn't really pitched in any late inning situations this year, but he could throw a few innings if the game went to extras.  Same with Leake.  I don't by the argument that he could also be there to pinch hit, it just won't happen, too hypothetical.  And Cingrani has a chance because we all know the Reds would love to carry a third lefty.  The obvious argument against him is his experience, because of that I think he gets left off.  My pick for the last spot is Simon.

Logan Ondrusek
Alfredo Simon

Ok, so we have 13 position players to choose from.  The locks (barring injuries of course).....

Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Zack Cozart
Scott Rolen
Ryan Ludwick
Drew Stubbs
Jay Bruce
Chris Heisey
Todd Frazier
Wilson Valdez
Ryan Hanigan
Dioner Navarro

So that leaves one spot, and it comes down to just two guys.  Do you carry a third catcher in Mesoraco or do you carry the veteran experienced Miguel Cairo.  This, to me, is the toughest question to answer.  If you carry Mesoraco, you can use Navarro to pinch hit and still have Mez to fill in at catcher if something happened to Hanigan.  If you carry Cairo, he can pinch run, or fill in for any of the infield spots in case someone got hurt.  Plus, if he had to pinch hit late or lay down a bunt, I would feel much more comfortable with him out there then Mesoraco.  If it were up to me, I would put Cairo on the roster.  Mesoraco just doesn't have a whole lot of confidence right now and with the off days, Hanigan will be able to catch every game if need be.  Either way, that will be an interesting decision.

Miguel Cairo

Ok, so there are your 25 the way I see it. What do you think?  Let me know.

Magic Number down to 8.  I was hoping I could see the clinch game next weekend, now I'm thinking it won't make it to the weekend.  Oh well, great problem to have.


EDIT ON 9/13/12

As my man Doug pointed out, I have a glaring ommission here.  Pretty embarrassed by it actually, but I forgot Xavier Paul.  He is a lock on this roster.  Dude can pinch hit very well and has earned his spot on this team.  So that means Cairo doesn't make the team, or if they take one less pitcher like I mentioned above, then Paul and Cairo would both be on the roster.  My mistake, don't make fun of me, ha.


  1. I think Xavier Paul makes the roster over Cario... they will need a left-handed bat off of the bench in the late innings.


  2. I made the change above. Thanks Doug, can't believe I forgot him.