Teams Left After Week 7

Season is halfway over.  We have lost 105 teams in the title hunt.  21 teams still have at least a 0.1% chance at taking home the trophy.  Here are the teams that I still think have that chance...

Rankings from Sunday's AP Poll...

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
5. Florida State
6. LSU
7. Texas A&M
8. Louisville
9. UCLA
10. Miami
11. South Carolina
12. Baylor
13. Stanford
14. Missouri
16. Texas Tech
17. Fresno State
19. Virginia Tech
24. Auburn
27. Nebraska
28. Michigan State
31. Oregon State



14 undefeated teams remain.  12 are above.  Northern Illinois and Houston are also undefeated but they don't have a prayer.

How are my National Title Hopefuls doing?

Oklahoma State (4-1) (21)
Off week in Week 7.  Home vs. TCU in Week 8.  Still have three ranked teams to play on the schedule.  If every team in front of them completely collapses, they have a shot.  So basically, they don't have a shot.

Stanford (5-1)
Horrible loss on Saturday to the Utes.  Kills their chances.  They aren't totally out of it however.  They still have UCLA, Oregon State, and Oregon in their next three games.  If they win all three of those, they'll be back in the Top 5 for sure.  So is it a longshot now?  Of course.  But they are definitely not out of it.

South Carolina (5-1)
Pasted Arkansas on Saturday.  The Cocks look really good.  At Tennessee this week which should be a beatdown.  The loss by Georgia really helps out SC.  If the Cocks win out and Georgia loses another game, the Cocks will win the SEC East and will probably see the Tide in the SEC Championship Game.  If that all happens and they beat the Tide, they would be in the title game.  So again, longshot?  Ya.  But definitely still a shot.



Clemson (6-0)
Trap game on Saturday and they almost fell into the trap.  But they survived and advanced.  Now it's the game of the week next week, home against #5 Florida State.  If the Tigers can take that game, they will solidify their spot as the number three team in the nation. 

Week 8 Big Games
#5 Florida State at #3 Clemson
Biggest ACC game in a long time.  Winner sets themselves up as a legit National Title contender.
#24 Auburn at #7 Texas A&M
Winner still has a shot at the title.  Auburn hasn't lost in conference yet.  If they were to run the table, you better believe they'd be in it.  A&M with a loss already to Bama is kind of in trouble.
#9 UCLA at #13 Stanford
Lost a little luster with Stanfords loss.  Winner still has a shot, loser is done.
#22 Florida at #14 Missouri
If Mizzou can take this game they will be a Top 10 team.  Going to be tough without their starting QB.

Any thoughts on the list of contenders?  Or do you want to tell me that my four teams have zero shots?  Let's hear it.  Thanks for reading.

Curt

National Title Hopefuls after Week 6

Six weeks in the books.  By my calculations, out of the 126 teams in Division I football, we have 26 teams left with at least a 0.1% chance of hoisting the trophy at the end of the season.  Here are the teams...

In order based on today's AP Poll Rankings...

1 Alabama
2 Oregon
3 Clemson
4 Ohio State
5 Stanford
6 Florida State
7 Georgia
8 Louisville
9 Texas A&M
10 LSU
11 UCLA
12 Oklahoma
13 Miami
14 South Carolina
15 Baylor
17 Florida
18 Michigan
20 Texas Tech
21 Fresno State
24 Virginia Tech
25 Missouri
26 Auburn
28 Nebraska
30 Michigan State
NR Houston
NR Oregon State



How did my four title hopefuls make out in Week 6?

OKLAHOMA STATE
Held off a weak Kansas State team.  They are still ranked 22nd but I don't even have them in my list above.  I can probably tear that ticket apart.  Home vs. TCU next week.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Handled a pretty bad Kentucky team until a garbage time comeback made it a close score at the end.  Still ranked 14th in the AP.  Three straight roadies coming up against Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri.  Should be able to win those.  One slip up will lead to a thrown away ticket.

STANFORD
Big win over #15 Washington.  At Utah next week and then a big one at home against #11 UCLA.  Really liking this pick.



CLEMSON
Beat the snot out of Syracuse in the Carrier Dome.  Boston College next week and then a huge one at home against Florida State.  Liking this pick also.

Week 7 Big Games
#2 Oregon at #16 Washington - Huge National Title implications.
#25 Missouri at #7 Georgia - Loser is out of the National Title picture.
#17 Florida a #10 LSU - Same here, loser is out of the race.

Thanks for reading.

Curt

Dusty: The Scapegoat

So Dusty Baker has been fired as manager of the Cincinnati Reds.  How do you feel about it?  Are you pumped?  Are you upset?  Are you indifferent?  Seems like I've seen a lot of different reactions.  I have my own thoughts on this whole debacle.  Not sure where to start so I'll just ramble off some thoughts on Baker, the Reds, and the future.  Here we go...

First off, I'm fine with the firing.  This team had high expectations and they weren't met, so if there is a change, that is fine with me. 

I remember the day Dusty got hired.  I called Schmitmeyer and we both were angry, we were NOT fans of Dusty Baker.  I still wouldn't say I like him, but it's not his fault this team underachieved. 

Managers don't play, players do.  The manager puts the players in positions to succeed.  Dusty can only do so much.  He didn't make errors, hit into double plays, give up gopher balls, or make braindead plays on the base paths.  You can say, that's coaching.  I disagree.  When it comes to professionals, they know what to do, if they don't do it, that's on them.

On the same point, managers get too much credit when the team wins, and they get way too much blame when the team fails.  The reason why managers are fired so fast is because you can't fire the players.  I would love to get rid of some players on this team, but you just can't do it because of their contracts, or because they are an asset if you wanted to trade them.

That being said, I think for once the fans actually got the manager fired.  Jocketty said he thought Dusty would be back and he had one year left on his contract.  Walt said he would talk to the Castellini's when they got back to Cincy.  You wouldn't think the Reds, being a small market club, would fire a coach with a contract and have to pay two managers for 2014.  So when all of a sudden he was fired, it pretty much means that the ownership said they needed to get rid of Dusty.  I understand why they wanted to move on.  The fans don't want him there and in the end, they are the ones buying tickets.  I think Mr. Castellini could see this, and he made the call, with the help of the fans.

Speaking of fans.  When I see people tweeting and posting on facebook about how they are so happy and using exclamation points and crap, it makes me sick.  It's not like if they had a new coach they would have won in the playoffs.  If you think just changing the manager means you automatically would have won, that's laughable.  So are you happy they made a change?  Ok.  Are you happy because now the Reds will win for sure?  Wrong.

One more thing about Dusty.  If he had a twitter or facebook account I would tell him, Thanks.  Before he was with the Reds, the Reds were a mess.  We all know the history, they haven't had a good year since the 90's.  He came in and took them to the playoffs three out of four years and won two division titles.  You can hate the guy, whatever, but you need to appreciate what he did for your favorite team.



Now for the next topic regarding the firing.  Who do they hire next?  I have my thoughts on that topic...

First off, NO LARUSSA!  The end, let's not bring that up again.

I have been reading people mentioning Barry Larkin.  Look, I like Barry Larkin, I named my dog after him.  But if you hated Dusty because he was too easy on the players and was a player manager, then you don't want Barry Larkin.  He would be worse than Dusty in that department, he just wants to be everyone's friend, which is fine for a man, but not as a manager.

Another Reds great that is being tossed around is Joe Morgan.  If you hated Dusty because he is too old school and won't adjust to the new school, then you don't want Joe Morgan.  He's as old school as it gets.  Plus, I've read multiple times that there are a few players that don't care for Morgan, so I don't see that happening, and I hope it doesn't.

Some people like the idea of bringing in a "buttkicker".  I think this is an awful idea.  Look at the players the Reds have, do you really think they are going to respond to a buttkicker?  I doubt it.  If you ask me, those kind of guys don't do any good in pro sports.  The players make more money than them in most cases, they aren't going to listen to a guy that screams and throws fits.  Everyone acted like Dusty needed to throw a chair or call someone a pussy.  Really?  You think Frazier was going to say, "Damn, Dusty is pissed, I guess I better not swing at that curveball in the dirt."?  Hell no.  Look around the league, find a manager that is known for being a hard ass.  There aren't many, if any.  Ozzie Guillen tried it, that didn't work out.  Some say Girardi is like that.  He's not. 

Speaking of Girardi.  The Reds aren't going to pay him 8 million dollars when they already owe over 3 million to Dusty.  It's just not going to happen.  Speaking of paying two managers, this might kill the idea of signing Choo even more.  If they weren't sure if they would have enough money, now they are screwed even more. 

One more thing about the hard ass manager discussion.  How fast do you think Phillips would ask for a trade if they hired a manager that yelled at him and told him to knock off his antics?  One, maybe two weeks?  Phillips isn't going to change, he is what he is.  If those hard ass managers work, it's when you have young players that haven't been there.  The Reds have some young guys but they have all played multiple years in the majors, they are basically all veterans.

So who do you want then Curt?  Well, I think they should stay inside the organization.  This team has a good nucleus of players that have been together for a few years.  Most of the best players have at least two, if not more years left on their contract.  Some would say the Reds have a two to four year window left to win it all.  If that is the case, then why bring in someone new that doesn't know the team?  Because of this, I say they go with Brian Price.  He knows the team, the pitching staff loves him.  I've read that he has been known to get on the players and hold them accountable, which is what they need.  Some say they should go outside the organization to get a change in there.  I think they say that because they think everyone thinks like Dusty that is on the staff.  That isn't true.  It's not like Price is a disciple of Dusty.  Price coached at a few other franchises before coming to Cincy, four years ago.  He doesn't coach just like Dusty, he would be a new voice that the players are familiar with and will want to win for. 

So do you agree?  Do you disagree?  Who do you want to be the new manager?  Love to hear your thoughts.  Thanks for reading.

Curt

Predicting the Wild Card Roster

Here is my shot at the Reds 25 man roster for the Wild Card Game on Tuesday night.  After that we'll take a look at what I think the starting lineup should be.  Let's get right to it...

STARTERS (2)
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey

I'm pretty pumped that Cueto is starting.  He has a lot of confidence against the Pirates.  I also read somewhere that he felt really bad about getting hurt and felt like he let his teammates down.  Now he gets a chance to make up for it.  He'll be on the top of his game for sure.  You need a second starter in case something freaky happens like last year with Cueto.  Bailey would be on four days rest so I think he would be that guy.  And he does have a no hitter at PNC park, so he's not a bad second option.

RELIEVERS (8)
Aroldis Chapman
Sean Marshall
JJ Hoover
Sam LeCure
Zach Duke
Manny Parra
Alfredo Simon
Logan Ondrusek

I say they go with eight relievers.  The above names would give them four lefties and four righties.  I was hoping Cingrani would be in there but they sent him out to Arizona to get some work in.  I really don't see any other options here.  Maybe they add one and put Leake in there to be an extra longman and hitter in case the game went 13 innings or something, but I doubt it.

CATCHERS (2)
Ryan Hanigan
Devin Mesoraco

I thought about adding Corky Miller here also, that way they could start Hanigan and use Mesoraco as a pinch hitter if needed.  I don't think that is going to happen however, but it might.

INFIELDERS (6)
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Zack Cozart
Cesar Izturis
Todd Frazier
Jack Hannahan

Nothing to see here, been the same guys all season.  And no September callups have done anything to even warrant a thought by Jocketty or Baker.

OUTFIELDERS (7)
Ryan Ludwick
Billy Hamilton
Shin Soo Choo
Jay Bruce
Xavier Paul
Chris Heisey
Derrick Robinson

Same with the outfielders, really nothing to see here either.  Hamilton and Robinson really give the Reds some speed off the bench and Paul and Heisey provide bench pop.  Not that they'll ever get a big hit, but they at least provide the chance to get a big hit.

STARTING LINUEP

Shin Soo Choo  CF
Brandon Phillips  2B
Joey Votto  1B
Jay Bruce  RF
Ryan Ludwick  LF
Todd Frazier  3B
Zack Cozart  SS
Ryan Hanigan  C
Johnny Cueto  P

You may not like Ludwick right now, but he has had recent success against Liriano and you aren't going to start Hamilton, Heisey, or Robinson in this game.  I think Bruce should always be batting fouth.  With Ludwick's success against Liriano, maybe that gets Bruce one extra good pitch to score some runs. 

So what do you think the roster will look like?  Any suggestions on the lineup?  At least I hope we can all agree that we just want to see one good game.  One good start.  One big hit.  One big K in a big spot.  Just something to get them to Thursday.  This team is too good to go out like this.  C'mon Reds, make us happy.  Thanks.

Curt

Does Your Team Still Have a Shot?

After five weeks of the college football season we have a lot of teams that have no chance of winning the National Title.  Most of those teams never had a shot, we all know that, but now they literally have no shot.  By my calculations, there are 85 teams with a 0.0% chance of winning the title.  There are 126 teams in Division I this year so that leaves 41 teams with at least a 0.1% chance of winning it all.  Some of these 41 teams would need almost every single thing to go there way to even have the slightest of prayers, but I don't want to say a team is dead and then have them come back alive.  Make sense?  Here are your 41 teams that can go to practice this week with at least a shot at playing for the title in January.  Is your team on the list?



ALIVE
Louisville
Houston
Clemson
Florida State
Maryland
North Carolina State
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Miami
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Baylor
Iowa
Michigan
Northwestern
Michigan State
Nebraska
Minnesota
Ohio State
Illinois
Fresno State
Oregon State
Stanford
Oregon
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
Utah
Arizona State
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Missouri
Alabama
LSU
Auburn
Ole Miss
Arkansas
Texas A&M




If you remember earlier this season, I said I put some money on four teams to win it all.  Here is where they stand...

Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1)
With the loss to West Virginia today, and no title game in the Big 12, they have no chance.  Haven't ripped up the ticket just yet, but if you look above, I don't have them in the alive category.  They are dead, no chance.

South Carolina Gamecocks (3-1)
Still have a shot, but it's a longshot.  If they can win out and get to the SEC title game, they could have a look at it.  But the only way they get to the SEC title game is if Georgia loses two SEC games, I don't see that happening.

Clemson Tigers (4-0)
In three weeks they have Florida State at home and then they end with a game at South Carolina.  If they run the table, and play an undefeated Miami team in the ACC title game, they could make the National title game.  I feel like this one has a shot.



Stanford Cardinal (4-0)
They have #16 Washington, #13 UCLA, #2 Oregon, and #22 Notre Dame all on the schedule, and all at home.  If they can run the table, they will definitely have the points to get them into the title game.  I like the looks of this one also.

20 teams remain undefeated after five weeks.

Any teams that you think still have a shot?  Or teams that you don't think should be alive?  Thanks for reading.

Curt

And Down the Stretch We Come!!!

We have finally reached the home stretch of the MLB Regular Season.  For weeks now, I've heard people talking about this time of the season.  Where will the Reds be when they play the Pirates 6 times in the last 9 games?  Will it be for the division?  Will it be for the home Wild Card game?  Will it be for a playoff spot at all?  The answers to those questions are; maybe, yes, and God I hope not.  First here is a look at the standings and who everyone has left.  Then we'll just visit a few thoughts on where we are, where we might be, and the season in general.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS (As of 9/20/13)

89-64  CARDINALS
88-65  PIRATES             1 GB
87-66  REDS                   2 GB

Remaining opponents: Each series is 3 games.

CARDINALS
at Milwaukee Brewers
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
CHICAGO CUBS

PIRATES
CINCINNATI REDS
at Chicago Cubs
at Cincinnati Reds

REDS
at Pittsburgh Pirates
NEW YORK METS
PITTSBURGH PIRATES

THOUGHTS

1. I think the Cardinals will lose 4 games the rest of the way.  Sounds like a pipe dream, but I really feel that way.  Milwaukee has been hot lately, so losing 2 there would not be surprising.  Then they get the Nationals who will probably still mathematically have a chance at a Wild Card spot.  And if you haven't noticed, the Nationals are scorching right now, having won 21 of their last 28 games.  Then they have their rival to close it out.  The Cubs would love nothing more then to crush the Cardinals spirits.  The Cards are good, and definitely in the drivers seat to win this, but their last 9 games are not easy by any means.  5-4 is my prediction.

2.  So that means the Reds need to go 7-2 to catch them.  Can they do it?  Yes.  Will they do it?  No idea.  Bailey and Latos are hot right now, so I could see them taking 4 games themselves the rest of the way.  If they take 2 of 3 in each Pirates series, and sweep the Mets, that's 7 wins.  It's there, the math works if the Cardinals agree to help them out.



3.  How badly are the Pirates freaking out right now?  They just about got swept in a 4 game series at home by the San Diego Padres.  That loss on Wednesday had to be so crushing to the players and the fans.  Up in the ninth with 2 outs and the Padres get 3 straight hits to stun them?  Wow.  If the Reds take Game 1 on Friday night, they are going to be like a deer in headlights.  If the Reds can sweep them here and the Nationals stay hot?  Uh oh.

4.  One more thought on the Nationals.  Root for them this weekend against the Marlins.  If they can stay in it, they'll go for broke to beat the Cardinals.  If they fall off, then they might throw in the towel.  Of course if the Reds lose the first 2 and the Nationals win the first 2, then root like hell for the Nationals to lose.  I don't want to go through that nightmare.  And if you weren't aware, the Nationals are currently 5 games behind the Reds for the last Wild Card spot.

5.  So the Reds are 2 games behind the Cardinals for the division lead.  We can all think of 2 games that the Reds have given away this year.  Heck, I can think of 5 or 6 right off the top of my head.  But you know, if they had just won 1 more game against the Cards, they'd be tied.  So think back to that 16 inning game a couple of weeks ago.  Or that game in St. Louis where the Reds led 4-0 and Craig hit a granny in the 7th.  Crazy that the result of 1 game looms so large. 

6.  I've been saying it since Monday, that loss on Sunday to the Brewers is going to haunt the Reds the rest of the year.  I just know it.

7.  Quick thoughts on Billy Hamilton.  First off, dude is lightning fast.  Second, I am so amazed at the way he reads the pitcher.  The pitchers right leg bends to begin to throw over and he's always on his way back.  Pitcher raises his left leg, he's already gone.  If you haven't played baseball, you have no idea how hard and nerve racking that is to stare at the pitcher and react to his first movement.  And if you have, you know what I'm talking about.  Third, if you hit behind Hamilton, and he's on first, you know you are getting a heater.  The pitcher doesn't want to throw a slider and waste .001 seconds with Hamilton running.

8.  Jay Bruce is third in the NL in home runs, second in doubles, second in RBI's, first in extra base hits, and most definitely going to get a Gold Glove Award.  So I ask, if Jay Bruce gets hot and carries this team to a division title, does he get real consideration for the NL MVP Award?  I don't think he wins it, but he should be in the Top 5 when it's all said and done.

9.  Because I know people like Magic Numbers.  Here is where the 3 NL Central teams stand with 9 games to go...
Cardinals have a magic number of 9 to win the division and a magic number of 3 to clinch a playoff spot.
Pirates have a magic number of 4 to clinch a playoff spot.
Reds have a magic number of 5 to clinch a playoff spot.

10.  So what do I honestly think will happen?  I think the Reds will take both series from the Pirates.  I think the Reds will lose 1 to the Mets and go 6-3 the rest of the way.  Cardinals will lose 4, like I stated before, and ultimately finish 1 game ahead of the Reds.  The Pirates will lose another game to the Cubs and finish 3-6 the rest of the way.  That's not enough for the Nationals to catch them.  So October 1st, we'll see the Pittsburgh Pirates at the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Wild Card Game. 

Let's hear it Reds fans, what are your predictions?  Can't wait for Friday nights game.  Haven't been this excited about a game in awhile.  Thanks for reading.

Curt

National League Picture 9/8 (Three Weeks to go)

Some numbers and notes going into Sunday, September 8th regarding the NL Central and NL as a whole...

Standings...
East
Braves by 13 - Magic Number to clinch division is 9.  Magic Number to clinch the one seed is 20.

Central
St. Louis leads the Pirates by 0.5 a game and the Reds by 1.5 games. 
Pirates and Reds magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 13.
Pirates magic number to clinch their first winning season in 22 years is down to 1.

West
Dodgers lead by 11 - Magic number to clinch the division is 11.

Reds are hot right now, having won 5 of 6, and three straight.  1.5 games is the closest they have been to first since May 29th.  Their schedule for the next week or so looks very favorable also with the Cubs, Brewers, and Astros in order.  Let's take a look at the schedule breakdown for the Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals the rest of the way.

REDS (19 Remain)
10 Home Games, 9 Road Games
7 Against Winning Teams, 12 Against Losing Teams
6 of the last 9 against the Pirates

PIRATES (21 Remain)
11 Home Games, 10 Road Games
10 Against Wining Teams, 11 Against Losing Teams
6 of the last 9 against the Reds
7 remaining against the Cubs

CARDINALS (20 Remain)
13 Home Games, 7 Road Games
4 Against Winning Teams, 16 Against Losing Teams

Doesn't take a genius to see who has the edge the rest of the way.  Cardinals schedule is setup perfectly for them.  Here is where the three teams stand on the season against each other.  Head to head records will be used to break ties, so these records matter.

REDS
6-7 against the Pirates (6 remaining)
8-11 against the Cardinals (DONE)
14-18 Overall

PIRATES
7-6 against the Reds (6 remaining)
10-8 against the Cardinals (1 remaining)
17-14 Overall

CARDINALS
11-8 against the Reds
8-10 against the Pirates (1 remaining)
19-18 Overall

If the Reds can go 4-2 or better against the Pirates in the last six, then each team would have a head to head advantage on another team.  So it's pretty even overall, but the Reds are the losers at this stage in the game.

How has each team in the Central done since August 7th (calendar month)?  One has picked it up, once hasn't...

Reds          19-11
Cardinals  16-14
Pirates       13-16

So in that span the Reds have picked up 5.5 on the Pirates and 3 on the Cardinals.

I took a look at the schedule for the last day of the season, and I would think there is about a 99% chance that the Pirates at Reds game will be the Sunday nighter.  That has a chance to be a huge game.

Big game tonight between the Dodgers and Reds.  Reds trail the Dodgers by three games in the standings.  If they can win tonight it will be down to two, and the Reds would hold the tiebreaker with a 4-3 season series win.  This is significant because if the Reds were to win the division, they could get the two seed over the Dodgers and get homefield in the first round.  But ya, that didn't mean much last year, so who take it for what it's worth.

Oh, and let's not act like Latos didn't try to hit Puig.  Remember the way he threw his arms in the air when he hit that walkoff when they were in LA?  Latos did, and he drilled him.  Latos is the man.  If he wasn't a Red, I wouldn't like him, but he is, so I do. 

Astros, Marlins, White Sox, and Cubs have been eliminated, 26 remain.  Three weeks to go, cmon Reds.

Curt

NFL Preview 2013

The other day I was watching ESPN, and between stories about Manziel deserving a million dollar paycheck and some old guys getting money for playing football, I decided to go through the entire NFL schedule and write down each teams record.  I just flat out said, who will win this game, and who will lose.  Here is what I came up with as far as records, along with what I think will shake out in the playoffs in this upcoming NFL season...

AFC EAST
13-3  Patriots
6-10  Bills
4-12  Jets
4-12  Dolphins

AFC NORTH
10-6  Bengals
8-8    Browns
6-10  Steelers
5-11  Ravens



AFC SOUTH
13-3  Texans
11-5  Colts
6-10  Titans
4-12  Jaguars

AFC WEST
12-4  Broncos
9-7    Chiefs
6-10  Chargers
6-10  Raiders

Some things that stand out in these regular season predictions...

Looks like I'm really down on the Steelers and Ravens.  Sorry, but how lucky can the Ravens get?  It has to run out sooner or later, and they just seem to have gotten worse, not better.  The Steelers have been on a downward spiral for a couple years now.  I think this is where they complete fall off.

Colts are going to have a huge year.  With Luck at the helm, they will be in every game.  He is so cool and calm under pressure that the Colts will pull out a lot of close games in the end.

Chiefs will have a good year, they play the Chargers and Raiders four times, so that helps.  I see them getting the final Wild Card.

I have the Broncos at 12-4.  I just didn't want to look like too much of a homer, but I don't think they'll lose a game.  19-0.

WILD CARD GAMES
Chiefs at Broncos
Colts at Bengals

DIVISIONAL ROUND GAMES
Broncos at Texans
Bengals at Patriots



AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Bengals at Broncos

BRONCOS to the Super Bowl

NFC EAST
9-7    Giants
8-8    Redskins
7-9    Eagles
6-10  Cowboys



NFC NORTH
10-6  Packers
10-6  Lions
9-7    Bears
8-8    Vikings

NFC SOUTH
12-4  Falcons
10-6  Saints
10-6  Panthers
4-12  Buccaneers

NFC WEST
11-5  49ers
9-7    Seahawks
8-8    Rams
2-14  Cardinals

Some things that stand out in these regular season predictions...

I like the Panthers this year.  I think they get the final Wild Card.  They had so many close games go the wrong way last year, it'll probably even out this year.  And last year you could tell Cam was staying in the pocket more than normal, he was probably told to do that.  I think the Panthers realized it didn't work, look for him to be running around like he did in his rookie year, and it'll be successful.

Cowboys are going to be dismal.  Other than Dez, they don't have a lot of weapons.  Murray is so injury prone.  Witten is old.  Austin isn't what he was.  Romo will have to do too much, and it's going to be bad for him I believe.

Cardinals are going to be the worst team in the NFL.  Why?  Not totally sure, but almost every game I looked at, I found it very hard to find some wins for them.  Peterson could win a couple on his own I guess.

I have the Lions missing out on the last playoff spot, but I think they'll be strong like they were two years ago.  Bush and Calvin will have monster years, along with Broyles once he gets going.

WILD CARD GAMES
Panthers at Packers
Saints at Giants

DIVISIONAL ROUND GAMES
Packers at 49ers
Giants at Falcons

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Packers at Falcons

SUPER BOWL
BRONCOS OVER PACKERS



MVP
Peyton Manning - I mean the guy is on pace for 103 Touchdown passes.  I think that would nail down the MVP Award.

BOLD PREDICTIONS

1.  Von Miller will lead the AFC in sacks, even though he is missing the first six games.

2.  The Super Bowl will be worse than people are expecting, it'll be a snowy nightmare.  Which in turn will make it one of the most memorable Super Bowls ever.

3.  Two coaches will get into an actual fight when shaking hands after a game.  I'm going with Harbaugh and Fisher.

4.  Brady will have a down year and will finally blow up on Bill for not getting him enough weapons to be successful.

5.  Tim Tebow will be picked up by a team and score a meaningful TD in a playoff game.  My prediction?  I think the Bengals, as a fullback.

FANTASY BUSTOUTS
D'Angelo Williams
Bilal Powell
Daniel Thomas
Mike Williams
Randall Cobb
Alshon Jeffery
Julius Thomas
Jared Cook
Tyler Eifert



FANTASY BUSTS
Arian Foster
Frank Gore
Demarco Murray
Mike Wallace
Larry Fitzgerald
Anquan Boldin
Jason Witten
Antonio Gates
Aaron Hernandez

So there you have it, my NFL Preview.  Would love to hear from you Bengals and Browns fans on what you think of the records I predicted.  And feel free to call me a homer, that's fine.  At least this year my homerdom is probably justified.  I guess we'll see.  Thanks for reading.

Curt

10 Thoughts from the Weekend

Just some thoughts from this weekend as I sit here and watch the rerun of the BET Awards...

- It was 1000 degrees at Papa John's stadium.  Miserable game, Bobcats got humiliated.  Solich was way too conservative.  First two possessions were three and outs with one pass and five runs up the middle.  Three of Bridgewater's five TD's were to guys so wide open no one was within ten yards.  That's not getting beat, man on man, that's either bad coaching or bad execution.  If they can get that cleaned up, they'll still have a very good year.

- I'm a fan of Johnny Manziel.  Dude is slick, and I have no problem with the swagger he plays with.  I liked to play the same way, some people don't like it, but to me it's fun.  Like I always said when I played, I'm not going to start anything, I never look for that, but if someone wants to talk, I'll talk.

- All four of my picks to win it all in College Football survived Week 1.  Oklahoma State with a decent win.  Stanford survived the bye.  South Carolina won handily on Opening Night.  Clemson with a huge win.

- Great win by the Reds Monday.  Three more and we got a whole new ballgame with 20 games to go.  Everyone on the team is getting it going right now, except for my man Votto, ugggh, this guy.

- Mat Latos is an ace, and should finish top three in the Cy Young race this year.  Reds have to pay him long term, but if they do, how can they pay Bailey also?  Will be interesting.



- Had a fantasy draft on Saturday.  Took Peterson, Demaryius Thomas, Peyton Manning, and Eric Decker with my first four picks.  So ya, as long as the Broncos score points, it'll be a fun year.

- Louisville is no slouch when it comes to the college coeds.  Pleasantly surprised by the quality and quantity on campus.

- Tebow cut.  He needs to come out and say he doesn't want to play quarterback anymore.  He's had his chances, it's not going to happen.  If he was available to play another position, I would want the Broncos to get him right now.  Could you imagine a third and one, hand off to Tebow, he trucks some linebacker in the hole, gets the first, pops up, excites the crowd, it would be awesome.  I'm all for Tebow doing that, so why doesn't he do that for some team?

- With four weeks remaining in the baseball season, only one team has been officially eliminated.  But, if you look at ESPN's playoff percentages, nine teams have over 90%.  There will be a couple division races that come down to the wire, but in a week or two, there won't be very many teams still in the running for a playoff spot, too many teams are running away with it.

- Three days until Broncos - Ravens.  Starting to stress out a little bit.  Taking Friday off.

Curt

College Football Preview

Well, here were are, another college football season is upon us.  What on earth could happen this year?  Will it be chalk again, or will some longshot emerge?  Will a favorite win the Heisman, or will someone step up and steal it, a la Manziel?  I polled 50 friends and came up with some interesting results.  I'll give you my thoughts on the poll results, along with some big games for the year, and a few bold predictions.  So without further ado, here is your college football season preview...

HEISMAN TROPHY WINNER

POLL RESULTS
BRAXTON MILLER          23
JADEVEON CLOWNEY     6
AJ MCCARRON                  6
JOHNNY MANZIEL            4
TEDDY BRIDGEWATER   4
AARON MURRAY              2
D'ANTHONY THOMAS     2
TAJH BOYD                        1
TYLER TETTLETON          1
TJ YELDON                         1

MY PICK
D'ANTHONY THOMAS

Well, you can tell that me, and most of my friends live in Ohio.  Braxton Miller is the choice to win the Heisman according to this poll.  And, I hate to say it, but this is very possible.  The guy is shiftier than Shifty Shellshock himself.  He has an above average arm and he has a great offensive line.  When I think about Miller winning the Heisman, I think about how my buddy Nagel told me a few years ago that Miller didn't look good in the spring game and that he thought Braxton would be a bust.  Even the best scouts can't get them all correct, right Johnny?  Clowney has a chance just because of his hype.  All you hear is how the Heisman isn't fair because a defensive player can't win it.  Well, you know how the media works, if they have a chance to rally against something, they will.  If Clowney has a good year and carries the Cocks to a title, he'll win it.  McCarron and Yeldon have a chance if the Tide make it to the title game.  Are too many people sleeping on Manziel?  I mean he won last year, and has to be better, right?  Tyler Tettleton is probably the worst pick on here.  Aaron Schmitmeyer made that gem of a pick.  My pick is D'Anthony Thomas.  A receiver hasn't won since Desmond Howard in 1991, but this dude is about as fast and as quick as any player I have seen in a long time.  He'll get the ball a lot, and get it in space a lot.  If he rips off five to ten sensational plays and the Ducks make a run, he'll be on the top of the list at the end of the year.  I'm rolling with him and I think I have a good shot. 



2014 BCS NATIONAL CHAMPION

POLL RESULTS
ALABAMA               22
OHIO STATE            13
STANFORD                4
OREGON                     4
LOUISVILLE              1 
GEORGIA                   1
SOUTH CAROLINA  1
FLORIDA STATE      1
NEBRASKA               1
SYRACUSE                1
LSU                             1

MY PICK
STANFORD

The results show that the two hottest picks are the team that won last year, and the only team that went undefeated last year.  You guys have no imagination.  Alabama is the unsexy pick, but I understand why everyone is taking them, they never rebuild, they just continue to reload.  The Tide will always have a tough schedule because they play in the SEC, but even if they lose, the SEC is the only conference where you can lose and still make the title game.  Alabama is definitely the favorite this year.  Oh the Buckeyes, of course.  Will they go undefeated again?  With that schedule, they might.  At Michigan and at Northwestern are probably their toughest games.  They pulled enough out of their ass last year that they might get some bad luck to even it out this year, but I doubt it.  Oregon and Stanford received 16% of the votes.  Take a look at Oregon's schedule once, other than Stanford, they have a pretty easy walk to an undefeated season.  Stanford has five ranked teams on the schedule, but the three toughest games are all at home.  I picked Stanford for that reason, they have the home games, and a tough enough schedule to get up top in the BCS.  Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, and Florida State aren't bad longshots.  Louisville doesn't have a chance.  My wife took Nebraska, she must have caught the homerdom virus from you Buckeye fans.  Syracuse?  A good friend of mine named Bradley made that brilliant pick. 



TEN BIG GAMES

1. Ohio at Louisville - I'll be there.  Tettleton back for his senior year.  Can they pull off another upset?
2. South Carolina at Georgia - Winner will be on the fast track to a BCS game, loser won't.
3. Alabama at Texas A&M - Can that no good, bad seed, Manziel, do it again?
4. Wisconsin at Ohio State - Will the Bucks get enough homer calls to pull it out?  We'll see.
5. Florida at LSU - Lots of punts, lots of college chics, lots of hopes go down in flames for one side.
6. Georgia at Florida - If either team is still undefeated, this will be crazy.  And ditto about coeds.
7. Oregon at Stanford - Could be the biggest Thursday night game in a decade.  No USF at Rutgers 2007 doesn't count.
8. LSU at Alabama - Of course everyone will be watching this one, right?
9. Nebraska at Michigan - Look at Nebraska's schedule, good chance they are undefeated going into this one.
10. Ohio State at Michigan - If I don't put this on here, people will get mad at me, and I'm not trying to make uneducated, ignorant fans mad.  Ooooh.

BOLD PREDICTIONS 

1. There will be no undefeated teams.  With a season like this, with so many teams with a chance to win it, I see total chaos in the BCS.  And why not, it's the last season for the BCS, so might as well go out with a bang.

2. There won't be enough bowl eligible teams for all the bowls.  I've always wanted this to happen, this is the year.  And I know that they would just let an under .500 team in, but it would still be funny.

3. A ridiculous individual record will be broken.  I'm thinking some running back runs for 400 yards, or a DB gets six interceptions in one game.  Something that will be remembered by all for a long time.

4. A team puts up 100 points in a game.  We've seen the games where a team has 30 or so in the first quarter and dials it down.  This year, the breaks fall the right way, and someone reaches the century mark.

5. Some analyst from ESPN will get in trouble for having a sex tape leaked.  My wife thinks it will be Herbstreit.  This is a ridiculous prediction, but one that I had to get in writing in case it happens.

There you have it, my college football preview.  Let's hear your bold predictions and thoughts on the upcoming season.  Thanks for reading.

Curt

PS This video is pretty legit, give it a watch. (And yes, about 35 seconds in, there's a sweet move by Braxton.)