Championship Week 3!!

Well, after another 19 went down tonight, we now have 172 alive and 172 dead.  We have reached the top of the hill, and are on the way down.  Here is the breakdown from Tuesday night.

DEAD COLUMN
Big East - Depaul, St. John's, Providence, Rutgers
MEAC - Morgan State, North Carolina A&T, Maryland Eastern Shore, South Carolina State, Coppin State
Atlantic 10 - Richmond, Charlotte, George Washington, Duquesne
Sun Belt - North Texas
Big Sky - Portland State, Eastern Washington
Ivy - Pennsylvania
Horizon - Valparaiso
Summit - Western Illinois

AUTO BID COLUMN
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (Congrats, now make your plans for Dayton for the Opening Round.)
Ivy - Harvard (First time in the dance since the 1940's.  Has to feel good.)
Horizon - Detroit (McCallum staying in Detroit with his dad has paid off.  Nice win.)
Summit - South Dakota State (Going to the dance for the first time.  They'll be a tough out.)

Where we stand with five days of basketball left until the committee selects....

ALIVE                          172
AUTO BID                     12
AT LARGE LOCK         2
ZOMBIE                         4 (BYU, Iona, Oral Roberts, Drexel)

DEAD                           172

TOTAL                         344

Five more tournaments start on Wednesday.  Here are my quick predictions.

SWAC
I'll go with the two seed Texas Southern in this one.  Mississippi Valley State has dominated the league but Southern lost to them in OT once and by three the other time.  The tourney is in Texas and I think they get the job done here.

SOUTHLAND
Texas Arlington was undefeated in the conference until the last game.  That loss probably makes them hungry, they'll take this crown.

PAC 12
Always been an Arizona fan.  Bad loss for them at Arizona State last week.  They know they need this tourney to make the dance.  They will have Washington in the semi's and they lost to them twice.  Arizona doesn't go down the third time.  Arizona to win it.

CONFERENCE USA
Memphis has won 8 out of 9.  Tourney is in Memphis.  I think they take this one.

BIG 12
I don't see how it won't be Kansas vs. Missouri III for this title.  Missouri I believe has the better individual players, but Kansas has the better team.  But in these kind of playoff games, it seems like the team with the better players wins.  I'll take Missouri.

Five tourney champs so far, I've picked 5 correct.  Just going for 50%.  A good 20 or so teams could go down on Wednesday.  Business is picking up.  See ya tomorrow.

Curt

Championship Week 2

Monday is in the books.  Six more days to go until the dance.  Nine more teams saw their dreams dashed, four got automatic bids, one is now considered an at large lock, and two were added to the Zombie list.  Here is the quick breakdown from Monday's action.

DEAD COLUMN
Mid American - Miami, Oh, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Bowling Green
Sun Belt - Arkansas State, Denver
Metro Atlantic - Fairfield
Southern - Western Carolina
Summit - Southern Utah

AUTO BIDS
Colonial - Virginia Commonwealth (Hoping to repeat their Final Four run)
Metro Atlantic - Loyola, MD (24-8 this year, team plays hard, good coach)
West Coast - St. Mary's (Great win over Gonzaga.  This team will be in the Sweet Sixteen.)
Southern - Davidson (Dominated their conference this year.  Will be a tough out like usual.)

AT LARGE LOCK
West Coast - Gonzaga (Once again will be a tough out in the dance.  Probably a better team than the one's they have had in recent years.)

ZOMBIE NATION
Colonial - Drexel (It would be hard to see them not make it, but crazier things have happened.  They won 19 straight in a pretty good conference before the championship loss.  27-6 overall)
Summit - Oral Roberts (Brutal loss for them in the semifinals.  RPI of 49 and 3-3 against the top 100.  I can't see them making it, but again, we've seen stuff like this happen so I'll keep them in the conversation.)

Updated count...

ALIVE                      191
AUTO BID                 8
AT LARGE LOCK    2
ZOMBIE                    4 (BYU, Iona, Drexel, Oral Roberts)

DEAD                       153

TOTAL                     344

Four more auto bids could be had on Tuesday.  Championship games in the Horizon, Summit, and Sun Belt conferences.  Also, with a Penn loss, Harvard would clinch the Ivy and get a bid.

Two more tourneys get under way on Tuesday.  Here are my predictions.

ATLANTIC 10
Temple all the way.  They have a first team, second team, and third team all conference player.  The coach of the year is on Temple.  They won the regular season, have the highest RPI in the conference, the best profile, and Atlantic City is dang near home for them.  They are definitely the team to beat.

BIG EAST
Syracuse.  Not because they are the top seed, but other than Marquette, they are really the only good team in the conference.  Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame are your other good teams?  Sounds like an all overrated list.

Curt

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK!!!!

Here we are, second best week of the year is here.  Last chance for some bubble teams to make a statement and get in the dance.  Sunday saw another 16 teams lose out on their chance, one punched their ticket, and one more was added to the Zombie line. George Mason was close to the Zombie line but with a 79 RPI, I had to bury them for good.  Here is the rundown on that...

Added to the dead column...

Northeast - Wagner, Quinnipiac
Colonial - Old Dominion, George Mason
Missouri Valley - Illinois State
Metro Atlantic - Siena
America East - Albany, Hartford
Southern - UNC Greensboro, Elon
Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Lafayette, South Alabama, Arkansas-Little Rock
Summit - North Dakota State, Oakland

Automatic Bid taken by...
Creighton wins the Missouri Valley Conference and should be looking at a top 8 seed in the tourney.

Dead but still alive, Zombie additions....
Metro Atlantic - Iona
(I understand they are a long shot and most have them out, but I'm just not ready to put them in the dead column.  They have a 41 RPI right now and they are 5-3 against the Top 100.  I say they are still in the conversation.)

BREAKDOWN

ALIVE                            200
AUTO BID                       4
AT LARGE LOCK           1
ZOMBIE                           2

DEAD                             144

TOTAL                           344

Two more tourneys start on Monday the 5th.  Here are my quick predictions....

MID AMERICAN
Hmm, I'll go with the Bobcats of Ohio.  Yeah, that's my alma mater, but there is more to my prediction then just that.  They destroyed Akron this year, they beat Buffalo twice, they destroyed Kent, they just play to their competition too much and seem to not be motivated all the time.  Well, with an auto bid on the line, they'll be motivated and they'll get it done and get to the dance for the second time in three years.

MID-EASTERN
Savannah State has ripped off 13 straight and looks to have this one in the bag.  Would take a major upset to knock them off.

Four more championship games on Monday night.  Just a reminder of my predictions from earlier in the week...

Colonial - I took VCU, still think they will win it.
Metro Atlantic - I took Iona, they bowed out, so it'll be Farfield or Loyola, MD.
Southern - I took Davidson and they are still the favorite.
West Coast - My BYU pick fizzled out, so it'll be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's, the best of the West.

Only looking at about 9 teams to go down on Monday, weak day, but still important.  Enjoy.

Curt

8 Days Left....

Saturday ended with 34 teams taking the plunge.  We finally got our first auto bids, first at large lock, and first Zombie Team.  Here is the quick breakdown of what happened on March 3rd.

Teams that died...

Colonial - UNC Wilmington, Delaware, Northeastern, Georgia State
Big South - Virginia Military Institute
Southern - Appalachian State, Wofford, Furman, Georgia Southern
America East - Binghamton, New Hampshire, Maine, Boston University
Ohio Valley - Tennessee State
Patriot - American University, Lafayette
Mid Atlantic - Rider, Marist, Niagara, Manhattan
Big Sky - Idaho State, Montana State
Missouri Valley - Evansville
Southland - Texas State
Horizon - Cleveland State, Butler
SWAC - Southern
West Coast - San Francisco
Sun Belt - Troy, Florida Atlantic, Florida International
Summit - IPFW, IUPUI
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulft Coast

Automatic Bids Granted....

Big South - UNC Asheville
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Atlantic Sun - Belmont

Zombie team added....

West Coast - BYU
(I think BYU is in, but I could see how they would be left out, RPI of 46 and 5-6 against the Top 100, it's iffy.  Do you think BYU should be moved out of this category and into the At Large Lock category?)

At Large Lock team....

Missouri Valley - Wichita State
(Lost in their conference semifinals.  They are 14th in the RPI and 6-3 against the Top 100, this team is a lock to make the dance.  Anyone not agree?)

Here is our current count....

TOTAL ALIVE           216
AUTO LOCK                3
AT LARGE LOCK       1
ZOMBIE                        1

DEAD                          128

TOTAL                        344

Only one title game today and that's in the Missouri Valley Conference.  A win by Illinois State would pop someones bubble come next Sunday.  A total of 16 teams could get the dagger today.  7 days until Selection Sunday, almost there.  Have fun.

Curt

Could have used him last night...

Championship Week Status?!?!?!

Well, we are finally here, Championship Week.  A possible four champions could be crowned today with automatic bids going with them.  Championship games to be played in the Atlantic Sun, Big South, and Ohio Valley Conferences.  Harvard also has a chance to win the Ivy League with a win and a Pennsylvania loss.  But we also have to recognize the teams that lost their title chances on Friday.  A total of 24 teams blew their chance yesterday.  Those teams are:

Missouri Valley - Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Drake, Missouri State
Southern - College of Charleston, The Citadel, Samford, Chattanooga
Colonial - James Madison, Towson, William & Mary, Hofstra
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State, Mercer
Horizon - Youngstown State, Milwaukee
Ivy - Princeton, Yale
Ohio Valley - Tennessee Tech, Morehead State
Mid Atlantic - St. Peters, Canisius
West Coast - Loyola Marymount, San Diego

That puts us at a total of 94 teams out and 250 remaining in this thing.  We have yet to add a zombie team.  No team has lost in their tourney but still have a shot at making the big dance.  That's probably a good thing for your "bubble teams" because no one has stolen a bid yet.  Don't worry though, it'll happen soon, and probably frequently.  Here is your breakdown for your records...

ALIVE                     250
ZOMBIE                    0
AUTO BID                0
AT LARGE LOCK    0

DEAD                       94

TOTAL                    344

Three more tourneys kick off their tourneys today.  Here are my quick predictions....

BIG SKY
I'll go with Montana in this one.  Weber State is really good and can definitely win it, but Montana beat Weber State in the last game of the regular season to capture homecourt for this tournament.  Because of that advantage, I see Montana taking care of business as the one seed.

SUN BELT
Not much insight here, just going to take Denver.  I watched them play Middle Tennessee State a few weeks ago and they worked them pretty good.  It was at home though, and Denver is only the three seed in this tourney so maybe they aren't the favorite.  But beating the top seed earlier in the year should give you some confidence, we'll see.  Oh, and I'm a Broncos fan, so I have a soft spot for Denver.

SUMMIT
Oral Roberts is the one seed but South Dakota State beat them earlier in the year and they play this tourney in South Dakota.  For that reason I'll go with SDSU. 

And to update my predictions so far.  I have UNC Asheville winning the Big South today.  I also have Murray State in the OVC.  But I had Mercer in the Atlantic Sun, they were ousted yesterday.  Hoping to shoot over 50% in the 30 tourneys, probably won't happen.  Enjoy Saturday's games, full slate.

Curt

Dead, Alive, or Zombie?!?!?!

Thursday's action saw another 16 teams go down.  That brings us to a total of 70 teams now completely out of the National Title picture.  274 still can say they have a shot.  Although after watching Kentucky, does anyone other than them really have a shot?  The 16 that went down Thursday were....

North Florida
Winthrop
Sacred Heart
Southeast Missouri State
Monmouth
St. Francis, NY
Central Connecticutt State
Southern Illinois
Pepperdine
Bradley
Portland
Jacksonville State
USC Upstate
UMBC
Charleston Southern
Grambling

Updated count....

ALIVE                    274
ZOMBIE                   0
AUTO BID                0
AT LARGE LOCK   0

DEAD                      70

TOTAL                   344

Tourneys starting on Friday....

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE
Davidson is the class of this conference for sure.  They should be able to win this one going away.  They don't have homecourt or anything so they could get upset, but don't count on it.

COLONIAL ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
This is going to be one of the more exciting tourneys in the NCAA this year.  George Mason and VCU are good just like they usually are.  Drexel has won 17 straight games.  Old Dominion can never be counted out.  Although I'm counting them out because they haven't beat any of the top teams this year.  I'll say Drexel is due to lose a game and I'll pick VCU to take this one.  Anyone's guess though.

METRO ATLANTIC CONFERENCE
Iona is the team to beat here.  They are number one in the nation in Points and assists.  They are second in the nation in field goal percentage.  These guys can score, they can't guard, but when you can put up that many points, you are definitely in every game.  I'll take them.

Possible 23 more teams could go down Friday.  And maybe we could even get to add one to the zombie section tonight if a bubble team falters.  Only 10 days of basketball left until the committee chooses their teams.  Enjoy.

Curt

Dead, Alive, or Zombie?!?!?!

Wednesday saw the most teams drop out of the race then any day so far.  15 teams no longer have the chance to win the title.  They were:

Coastal Carolina
Campbell
Jacksonville
High Point
Holy Cross
Navy
Colgate
Eastern Kentucky
Army
Liberty
Lipscomb
Santa Clara
Austin Peay
Fordham
Rhode Island

That leaves us with a total of 54 teams out and 290 still left with a chance.  Here is the breakdown...

ALIVE             290
ZOMBIE            0
AUTO BID        0
AUTO LOCK    0

DEAD               54

TOTAL           344

A possible 17 teams could lose out on Thursday.  And the deceased just keep coming.

Tourneys starting on Thursday and my predictions.

AMERICA EAST
I'm going to go with Vermont here.  They have split with the one seed Stony Brook this year but the time they beat them they ran them off the floor.  Also, Vermont lost to Binghamton last week and this will only get them more focused in the tourney.

NORTHEAST
I'll go with Robert Morris in this one.  Only because I watched them win at Ohio this year and they seemed to have a team of players that aren't scared to take the big shot.  They also beat the number one seed Long Island this year, so they know they can beat anyone.

MISSOURI VALLEY
Wichita State in a runaway.  They only team close to them is Creighton and from what I saw in their last matchup, they aren't even close to them.  I'd be shocked, if they didn't win this tourney.  Shocked I tell ya.

Went to the Marquette at UC game tonight.  UC played hard, they outrebounded Marquette and beat them to every loose ball.  I don't think UC is that great of a team, but I don't want my favorite team to play them in the tourney, that's for sure.

Til tomorrow....

Curt

Status Update Anyone?

Ok, another day of games in the books, at least the ones that matter in this exercise.  Four teams are now dead and can no longer win the title.  They are all from the Horizon league, which started its conference tourney Tuesday night.  Those teams are; Green Bay, Wright State, Loyola (IL), and Illinois-Chicago.  All the top seeds won, no upsets to speak of tonight.  That puts us at 39 teams dead, and 305 still alive. 

I was thinking, we need to have a couple more categories for this thing.  What happens when a team loses in its tourney but is still on the bubble?  I was thinking, staying with the dead or alive theme, we will put these teams in the Zombie category.  I figure you lose and you feel like you're dead, but you're still somewhat alive, haunting the other teams that are still somewhat alive, making you a Zombie.  Dumb?  Probably, but that's what we are going to use from here on out.  We'll also have to keep track of teams that have earned the automatic bids and teams that we all know will get an at large once they have been ousted from their own tourneys.  So right now it looks like this...

ALIVE                      305
ZOMBIE                     0
AUTO                         0
AT LARGE LOCK     0

DEAD                        39

TOTAL                     344
(Remember, we won't add you as an at large lock until you lose your conference tourney.)

Tourneys starting on Wednesday....

Atlantic Sun
I think I'm going to go with Mercer in this one.  Belmont won the regular season crown and beat Mercer twice, but I'll go with the old adage, you can't beat a good team three times in one season.  No other reason than that, well, other than the fact that I don't want to pick the one seed every time.

Patriot
Lehigh is my pick here.  They have won nine out of ten and beat Bucknell on the road during that streak.  The title game will probably be on Bucknells home court, so we know Lehigh can win there.

Ohio Valley
Hmmm, I think I'll go with Murray State in this one.  They get a bye to the semi's so that helps.  I just don't see how they can lose.  I could pick against them just for fun, but what is the point when you know you'll just be wrong?

West Coast
This will be a really good tourney.  The top four teams in this conference can each beat one another.  St. Mary's and Gonzaga should meet in the final but it's definitely not a given.  I think I'm going to take BYU in this one.  The tourney is in Vegas so none of the top teams have any kind of homecourt advantage.  I think that levels the playing ground and makes it one of those tourneys that anyone can win.

Wednesday has the chance to knock out well over a dozen teams.  Pretty much from here on out we'll be taking out double digits worth of teams daily.  Here we go....

Curt

P.S.  You know who took a step toward going back to the dance tonight, right?



Comments are welcome.

Dead or Alive!?!?!?!?!

Here we go, it's March Madness time.  Yep, you get three bonus days in February. Conference tournaments start today, Monday the 27th.  For the next 14 days, teams will be playing their conference tourneys and either continuing to chase their dream, or losing out and being forced to hope next year brings a different outcome.  Selection Sunday will then set the stage for the best tournament in sports, with 68 teams hoping this could be the year.  Finally Monday, April 2 will be the end of the journey and one team will stand tall as the Champion of College Basketball.  And for once, the game won't rival Opening Day, thank God.

As of Monday night, 35 teams are officially done, leaving 309 teams still with a shot at the title.  Here are your eliminated teams:

Atlantic Sun - Kennesaw State, Stetson
Big Sky - Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, Northern Colorado
Big West - Cal State Northridge
Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Bryant University, Mount St. Mary’s, St. Francis, PA
Ohio Valley - Tennessee-Martin, Eastern Illinois, SIU-Edwardsville
Southland - Central Arkansas, Southeastern Louisiana, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Summit - UMKC, South Dakota
Sun Belt - Louisiana Monroe
Independents - Cal State Bakersfield, Seattle, Longwood
Great West - Utah Valley, Texas-Pan American, North Dakota, NJIT, Houston Baptist, Chicago State
Ivy - Brown, Dartmouth, Columbia, Cornell
Big South - Presbyterian, Radford, Gardner-Webb

Remember, there are 32 conferences, 31 of them have conference tourneys. The Great West Conference doesn't have an automatic bid and the Ivy League doesn't have a conference tourney.  The Ivy awards their regular season champion the auto bid.  So in the end, there are 31 automatic bids. That leaves 37 at large bids to be handed out on Sunday, March 11th.  I'll keep a tally of auto bids on the blog once we start getting some champions.  I will also post my prediction for each conference before each tourney starts.

Big South
This tourney started on Monday, so ya, I'm late, but I don't think the outcomes of the first games are going to sway my decision.  UNC Asheville is definitely my pick to win this one.  Not only are they the class of the conference, but the tourney will be held at their place if they make it to the final.   Their tourney to lose.  Just want to point out that they got rolled in Athens by the Bobcats a couple weeks ago, but hey, who doesn't?

Horizon League
This tourney starts on Tuesday.  This will be an interesting one.  Valpo is the best team and they will host the tourney.  But you know who is lurking; Butler is a five seed and will have to win four games to get back to the tourney.  We've all seen them win four games in a row before.  I'm going to pick Valpo though, it's at their place, the Drew family has some magic going in this one, and I don't think Butler can keep it going this year.

In all, 15 conferences start their tourneys this week, should be fun.  I'm going to the Marquette at Cincinnati game on Wednesday.  Big one for Cincy, they need it.  We are also going to Ohio at Miami on Friday.  Looks like Ohio will need to win to get the two seed and a double bye in the MAC tourney next week, they need that.  If you made it this far, thanks for reading.  Let me know your thoughts on the tourneys.

Curt

Dead or Alive?!?!?!?!?!

Another 8 teams lost their chance to win the title on Saturday.  Those teams were:

Stetson - Atlantic Sun
Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley
Central Arkansas - Southland
Southeastern Louisiana - Southland
Texas A&M Corpus Christi - Southland
Princeton - Ivy
SIU Edwardsville - Ohio Valley
South Dakota - Summit

South Dakota is actually ineligible due to switching to Division 1 this year, but they wouldn't have made their tourney anyway, so it's all good.

That puts us at a total of 32 teams now with zero chance to dream the ultimate dream.  Those other 24 teams?  I'll give you a quick run down here since it's Sunday and it's just a good time to give these teams one last shout out for a failed season.  Those teams are:

Atlantic Sun - Kennesaw State
Big Sky - Northern Arizona, Sacramento State
Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Bryant University, Mount St. Mary's, St. Francis, PA
Ohio Valley - Tennessee Martin
Summit - UMKC
Sun Belt - Louisiana Monroe
Ivy - Brown, Dartmouth, Columbia, Cornell
Independents - Cal State Bakersfield, Seattle, Longwood
Great West - Utah Valley, Texas Pan American, North Dakota, NJIT, Houston Baptist, Chicago State
Big South - Presbyterian

No teams will become deceased on Sunday, so we go into Monday with 312 teams still with a chance to win it all.

ESPN says Championship Week starts next Saturday, but it really starts on Monday.  At least 7 conferences start their tourneys this week, a few more start later in the week.  This is where the real fun begins and teams start dropping like flies.  Stay tuned, I'll keep you updated on who is in, who is out, and some bubble talk once it comes to that.  Enjoy.

Curt