Reds April 8

Nice series.  Almost started the season on a down note but Bruce came to the rescue.  Just some thoughts on a few players...

Im ok with Latos first start.  I watched it from center field and you can tell he has really good stuff.  He just fell behind batters too much and had to bring strikes and got hurt.  He was trying to be too fine instead of just relying on his stuff being too hard to hit.  He'll come around, it's just one start.

Bruce has the homerun stroke going.  It's only three games, but barring injury, I would be surprised if he didn't get to 40 jacks this year.

Votto is struggling with the offspeed pitch, it won't last, just something I noticed.

Phillips has to be the slowest "fast" guy I've ever seen.  He just can't beat anything out.

Cozart will cool off once everyone has a book on him, but right now the dude just keeps hitting mistakes.  You hit mistakes in the majors and you'll be a .300 hitter. 

Rolen looks old, but that good kind of old that makes you look like a wiley veteran.  The only bad thing about that is that I just really can't see it lasting. 

Our bench is weak.  Other than Heisey or Ludwick, who is going to come up with a big hit in the clutch?  I know Cairo has the ability, but other than that?  It's still far away, but that will be the big need at the trade deadline.

I like how Jocketty seems to do a great job of keeping things quiet.  No one heard anything about the Latos trade until it was announced.  No one knew about Votto's extension until it was pretty much complete.  I just like the way he does business.  The only problem is that when you don't hear anything, you read peoples comments saying, DO SOMETHING, WHY ISN'T HE DOING ANYTHING???  Believe me, he's always doing something.  He just doesn't need you to know.

2-1, half a game out.  Huge series with the Cardinals starting Monday.  Every game counts for the same amount.  Just because this is an earlier series doesn't mean it's not important.  I'm hoping Bailey comes out and shuts them down.  He has had good success against them in the past, so I think he gets it done.

Looking Good
Cueto
Bruce
Cozart
Rolen
Chapman

Looking Bad
Stubbs
Heisey
Arroyo

Curt

Reds April 6

Saturday will be the first game I'm attending this year.  One going on 25. 

This will be my first look at Latos.  Dude will be a huge part of this years success.  It will be interesting to see how he reacts to his first homer given up that lands in the first row of the seats.  He's use to pitching in the huge park that is Petco. 

We'll probably see Heisey starting in this one so that'll make some whiners happy.

Marlins have 7 hits in two games this year.  They'll hit this year, but hopefully they don't start doing anything until Monday.

Back to a half game out of first with the Cardinals win today.  Have to keep pace, ha. 

The Phillips news.  Hey, if he wants to sign for less years to be a part of this year, then let's do it.  If they can keep him, Bruce, and Votto for awhile, this could be the Big Red Machine II.  Don't want to look too much into it until it's written in ink.

Curt

Reds April 5

Opening Day was about as much of a success as it possibly could be.  Everyone had a hand in the victory.  No one could go back home and say they had a bad game, has to leave a good taste in each players mouth.  Some thoughts on what happened today...

Phillips was working the count a lot.  Really good sign.  In the past he hasn't walked much and that could be the downfall of him being the leadoff man, but if he is going to work counts like that all year, then we might have something going.

Votto is just Votto.  Dude is so discipline up there it is ridiculous.

Every pitcher was throwing strikes and making the opponent beat them.  That will lead to success if it becomes a trend this year.

Cozart didn't exactly knock the cover off the ball but he got two hits, I guess that is why the box score doesn't always tell the whole story.

Some nice plays by Rolen in the field, he looks old, but a limber old.

Marshall's curveball is freaking nasty.

That's one for Bruce.  One going on 40 to 45.

And that is one for Stubbs also.  I'm talking about bunt hits here, I'll take 40 to 45 of those also.

161 games to go.  First place.

Curt

Reds April 4

Going to post something every day on the Reds, even if it is only a couple of lines.  Today I'll go with some likes and dislikes going into Opening Day.

LIKES

I like Opening Day, who doesnt?  It's a top five sports day of the year for me.  In no particular order they are March Madness Thursday, Masters Sunday, Opening Day, Week 1 Sunday in NFL, and the NBA Draft.

I like Chapman not being in the starting rotation.

I like Homer Bailey being in the rotation.  I think he breaks out this year.  I'm looking for a 15 win season out of him.

I like the Francisco trade.  I liked Francisco, but it was time to move on I think and they did it without waiting too long.

I like the Votto signing.  Well actually I love the Votto signing.  Some people aren't on board, but why?  Because it's too much money?  Who cares, it's not my money.  Look, the Reds are a small market, you can have a couple big contracts on small markets.  The way you stay competitive is to keep building through the farm system.  If a guy becomes awesome and you can't pay him, then the next farm stud comes up and replaces him, just keep going that way.  This Votto deal won't hold the Reds back, stop the negativity with it.

I like Bruce to have a huge this year.  Stubbs to also improve.  I think Heisey and Ludwick struggle all year, and it'll be the hot button topic again.  Mesoraco will be average, but that's ok as long as he and Hanigan stay healthy.

DISLIKES

I dislike Chapman being in the pen.  I think he needs to be in the rotation in Louisville.  He would just get better, and then when the inevitable injury occurs he can step in and join the rotation.  If he stays in the pen for too long they won't be able to send him back to the rotation, it's not good for his arm.  Then again, who cares about his arm, get your six years out of him, who cares if he blows it out after that.

I dislike seeing us with zero power bat off the bench.  No lefty with any kind of pop.  People will complain about Ludwick starting, but at least then we have Heisey off the bench.  In the late innings, who can pinch hit and scare an opponent with their power?  Uhhh, no one.

I dislike the injury bug.  Madson, Masset, Bray, hope that is the end of it for at least a few months.

I dislike the Arroyo hate.  Dude averaged 16 wins a year for three years before last years debacle.  Let's give him a chance to bounce back before we just say he is the antichrist, he deserves it.

I dislike the Phillips to Votto comparison.  They can still sign Brandon, just not for the years he wants.  I think Brandon will play his ass off.  Half for the Reds, and half for his next contract.  Either way, that benefits the Reds.

That'll do for tonight.  Enjoy the game everyone, the marathon begins in less than 18 hours.

Oh, and a quick prediction.  Reds 88-74.  They get the wild card.  Win the playoff game.  Face the Diamondbacks in the first round.  They win that 3-1.  Go on to face the Phillies.  Get swept.  Overall, successful year.  Cueto finishes in the top 5 in the Cy Young voting.  Votto finishes in the top 3 of MVP voting.  Jay Bruce hits over 40 homers.  Drew Stubbs drives in over 80 RBI's.  Marshall gets over 35 saves. 

Curt

Thoughts on Manning to the Broncos...

I just wanted to put my thoughts out there on the ongoing Manning soap opera.  It is going to end here this week so I thought I would let you know where I stand.  Here we go.

Do I want Peyton Manning to sign with the Denver Broncos?  Hell yes.  I want the Broncos to go for it and make the deal and go for titles.  With Manning you have a shot to win it all for the next three years.  With Tebow, you have a chance to be mediocre for the next ten years.  Elway isn't going to settle for mediocrity.  They have had Tebow for two years, and he played for four years in college and still doesn't have the abilities that most NFL QB's have.  He just won't ever be great, he just won't, sorry.  So you draft a QB this year in the third round, someone that Elway likes, and let him sit for a couple of years and when Peyton is done, he steps in and takes over.  Once Manning wins a few games, Tebow will be forgotten in Denver.

Why do I think Manning should pick Denver?  Look at their defense?  It's mostly young guys.  Dumervil, Miller, and Ayers are really good.  They have some safeties that are young.  Plus Fox is a defensive minded coach and they just signed Jack Del Rio to be defensive coordinator.  Those two guys are very respected throughout the league, they'll get some good guys to come play there.  They have like the third most salary cap space too.  Look at their receivers.  Demaryius Thomas is a beast, Eric Decker is really good route runner, Matthew Willis is up and coming.  Sign Reggie Wayne and they have one of the better receiver corps in the league.  Manning has to be thinking, "This team made the playoffs and won a game with a hideous offense.  If I put up 24 points a game at least, they would win 11 games easy."  The AFC West isn't exactly a powerhouse either, so the division is there for the taking.

You absolutely have to love John Elway.  How ballsy is this guy?  He knows that he doesn't want Tebow for the future.  I'm sure he likes Tim and wants him to succeed, but he knows he will not get the Broncos to the promise land.  He also knows that if he trades Tebow or brings in a rookie and starts him, his house will probably get burnt down and his legacy will be gone in Denver.  He knows that if any other QB plays and throws one incomplete pass the crowd will be on his ass so hard it will be a joke.  So how does he get out of this?  Sign Peyton Manning.  Brilliant!!!  The best part is what I mentioned earlier, Tebow won't be great.  So it's not like they will trade him and he'll come back to haunt them and be one of the best QB's in the game, it just won't happen.  Ya, maybe they'll trade him to Jacksonville and he'll be an icon, sell jerseys, fill the seats, win some games, but will he win a Super Bowl?  Hell no, not in the NFL. 

So Curt, you obviously hate Tebow, you hater.  Not true, I love Tebow.  Well, not as much as most, but I like him.  Here is what I wonder.  You honestly don't think Tim Tebow couldn't do what Peyton Hillis does?  Sure he could.  He's fast, he's obviously a bad ass and impossible to tackle.  So why not make him a fullback?  Could you imagine a third and one in a big spot and they hand it to Tebow and he trucks a guy for a first down and comes up flexing and screaming?  The place would go nuts.  Just because he isn't the QB doesn't mean he wouldn't have an impact on the team.  How many great leaders in the game aren't QB's?  A ton of them. 

And if they get Manning we will find out who the Broncos fans are, and who the Tebow fans are.  Believe me, there is a huge difference and I want the Tebow fans gone.  You annoy me. 

One last thought, what if Manning signs somewhere else now?  That won't be good.  Elway will look bad and will have to go with Tebow.  Tebow can say all he wants about it not affecting him, but how could it not.  He knows they don't see him in the future.  It could get ugly, and I don't want to see that happen.  I just want the Broncos to win, and that's honestly all I care about.  Do the right thing Peyton, join the good guys and take us back to where we belong.

Curt

Blog Before the Selection...

Well, we're here, thank God.  I've been unable to blog the last couple days so I'm catching up and breaking it down here before 6PM.  I show 265 teams officially done.  I have 31 automatic bids and 24 at large locks.  That leaves us with 24 Zombie teams and a total of 79 teams that I feel are still alive in the chase for the title.  Here is who I show remaining.

AUTOMATIC BIDS (31)
UNC Asheville, Murray State, Belmont, Creigton, Virginia Commonwealth, Loyola (MD), St. Mary's, Davidson, Western Kentucky, Harvard, Detroit, South Dakota State, LIU Brooklyn, Lehigh, Montana, Vermont, Memphis, Norfolk State, Lamar, Colorado, Mississippi Valley State, Ohio, Long Beach State, Louisville, New Mexico State, New Mexico, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Florida State, St. Bonaventure, Michigan State

AT LARGE LOCKS (24)
Wichita State, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Georgetown, Marquette, Iowa State, Temple, Syracuse, Kansas, Purdue, Indiana, UNLV, Notre Dame, Florida, Baylor, Duke, Wisconsin, Michigan, San Diego State, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio State

ZOMBIE TEAMS (24)
I am putting these teams in order of RPI with a note on whether they will get in or not.  These are clearly guesses, I'm not trying to act like I know who will get in or not.  A few of these teams we are pretty sure will be in, and a few will most definitely be out.  But would you be surprised if any of them missed out or made it?  Not entirely, so that's why they are on this list.  13 of these teams will get in.

Southern Mississippi (21) Should get in, 9-5 against the RPI Top 100.
Colorado State (30) Should get in, but a 3-9 road record?  Uh oh.
Connecticutt (32) They'll get in, Big East, no doubt.
Alabama (36) Will probably get in, but also a bad road record at 4-7.
California (37) Zero wins over the Top 50 RPI, I think that kicks them out.
Iona (40) Also zero wins over the Top 50 RPI, they are probably out.
Xavier (41) Four Top 50 wins will get them in.
Marshall (44) 13 overall losses and 5-8 on the road.  I think they make it.
BYU (46) Only one Top 50 win but a good road record, probably make it.
North Carolina State (49) Only one tp 50 win, but a 23 SOS, probably make it.
Texas (50) 4 Top 50 wins and a 19 SOS.  They probably get in.
Oral Roberts (51) 2 Top 50 wins but a SOS of 193 will be their downfall.  They're out.
South Florida (52) 12-6 in the Big East, that has to count.  They make it.
Virginia (53) Loss 5 out of last 8, 86 SOS, just not enough, out.
Central Florida (54) 6 losses in CUSA and 3-8 on the road, they are out.
West Virginia (57) Don't deserve it, but they'll make it, probably with 9 Top 100 wins.
Miami (60) Only 3 Top 100 wins and 5-8 on the road.  Out.
Oregon (64) Zero top 50 wins, no way, they are out.
Drexel (66) 19 straight wins at one time, tough Colonial conference, they make it.
Nevada (67) Zero top 50 wins but 13-1 in conference.  Out.
Seton Hall (68) 8-10 in conference, that has to put you out.
Washington (71) High RPI, regular season PAC 12 champs, ughhh, they make it.
Mississippi State (75) 2 Top 50 wins but only 3 road wins out, not enough, out.
Arizona (76) Positive road record, one top 50 win, not enough, out.

This will be an interesting bracket.  I have Kentucky, Syracuse, Missouri, and Michigan State as my one seeds, but UNC is right there too.  Let me know what you think. 

Curt

Quick Saturday Morning Count

DEAD. 257
ALIVE. 87

Added Zombies from Friday, Virginia, Alabama, Southern Mississippi, Central Florida, Tennessee, Colorado State, Miami, Texas, and California.

At large locks added were, Temple, Ibdiana, Syracuse, Kansas, Purdue, Notre Dame, and UNLV.

Been on the road the last couple of days. Will have a thorough count Sunday morning. Only two days of basketball left before the Selection.

Friday Morning Update

After I went to bed we lost four more teams and added three more Zombies. The breakdown.

DEAD COLUMN
Mountain West - Wyoming
WAC - Utah State
Conference USA - UAB
Big West - UC Riverside

ZOMBIE COLUMN
PAC 12 - Oregon (They are in trouble.)
SEC-Mississippi State (Seriously in trouble)
Big East - South Florida ( Should be in)

108 still alive. 236 officially done.

Awesome Friday action to come. Go Owls and Bobcats.

Curt

Three Days Left....

Another 35 teams were eliminated from the title race tonight.  A few more will lose tonight, but I'm going to bed at midnight.  The others will be updated in the morning.  That leaves us with 112 teams left at Midnight of Thursday night.  We also added 2 Zombies to the list along with 4 At Large locks.  Here is the breakdown.

DEAD COLUMN
Big 12 - Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Big 10 - Penn State, Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska
Mountain West - Boise State, TCU, Air Force
ACC - Wake Forest, Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech
SEC - Arkansas, South Carolina, Auburn
Conference USA - East Carolina, Tulsa, UTEP
SWAC - Prairie View A&M, Alabama State
WAC - Idaho, Fresno State, San Jose State
Big West - Pacific, Cal State Fullerton, UC Davis,
MEAC - Delaware State, UNC Central
Pac 12 - UCLA, Stanford
Southland - Stephen F Austin, Texas Arlington
MAC - Western Michigan, Toledo

AT LARGE LOCK COLUMN
Big 12 - Kansas State, Iowa State
Big East - Georgetown, Marquette

ZOMBIE COLUMN
Big East - UCONN (They have a handful of top 50 wins, and road wins, they should be in.)
Pac 12 - Washington (RPI is horrendous, nothing is good, but they won the Pac 12 regular season crown, have to at least be in the conversation.)

Total Breakdown...

ALIVE                         112 
AUTO BID                    15 
AT LARGE LOCK         6
ZOMBIE                         8

DEAD                          232

TOTAL                        344

Curt

Championship Week 3

Four days left, 147 teams remain in the hunt. Wednesdays games saw 25 teams lose out, 3 earned auto bids, and 2 were added to the Zombie column. Here is the breakdown.

DEAD COLUMN

Big East – Pittsburgh, Villanova
Conference USA - Rice, Southern Methodist, Houston, Tulane
Southland - Sam Houston State, Northwestern State, Nicholls State, UTSA
SWAC - Alabama A&M, Jackson State
PAC 12 - Washington State, USC, Arizona State, Utah
MEAC - Savannah State, Howard
Mid American - Northern Illinois, Central Michigan
Big 12 - Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Northeast - Robert Morris
Patriot - Bucknell
Big Sky - Weber State

AUTO BID COLUMN

Northeast - LIU Brooklyn (Didn't look very good and Spike Lee was their biggest fan.)
Patriot - Lehigh (Good team and beat a good team in Bucknell. They'll be a tough out.)
Big Sky - Montana (Going to be a super tough out. They won a game in 2006 over Nevada.)

ZOMBIES

West Virginia - Probably will be in, but I would hardly call them a lock. Not a good team, but has some decent wins.
Seton Hall - Have lost 10 or 15 and have beat the bottom feeders of the Big East this year. Doesn't look like this team will make it, but they are squarely on the bubble.

ALIVE                           147

AUTO BID                      15
AT LARGE LOCK           2
ZOMBIE                           6 (BYU, Iona, Oral Roberts, Drexel, West Virginia, Seton Hall)

DEAD                           197

TOTAL                         344

Last six tourneys start on Thursday. Here are my quick predictions.

ACC

North Carolina is the class of the league and honestly, the only good team. Duke has big holes, Florida State can't score, and the others just aren't good. I got UNC.

BIG 10

Same thing with this league, I think OSU and Michigan State are good. The others? Just not sure about any of them. Indiana and Michigan are overrated. Wisconsin can't score. Purdue is short handed. Just not sure about this conference. I think Ohio State wins it.

BIG WEST

Long Beach State is going to run this one. Only loss came in the last game and probably got them refocused.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Tourney is on UNLV's home floor. For that reason I'll take them. No other team in the conference has really stepped up either.

SEC

Can you really pick anyone other than Kentucky? I don't think so.

WAC

Idaho Vandals for the win. They beat New Mexico State and Nevada this year, so they can do it again.

No title games Thursday. Just a few important games...

Curt